Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Retail strength unlikely to offset industrial weakness Brazilian retail sales grew by far more than expected in November. But the strong performance is unlikely to have prevented the economy from slipping into a mild recession in the second half of last... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE likely next month The MPC’s decision to leave policy unchanged today was as expected, given that the last of the £75bn of asset purchases decided upon in October is still being completed. However, next month should see... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Seasonal factors linked to Chinese New Year slowed inflation’s decline in December. The payback will come once the festival has passed when the headline rate is likely to register another significant... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus likely before second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday next week, we still think that further policy stimulus is around the corner and expect its... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus likely before second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday next week, we still think that further policy stimulus is around the corner and expect its... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Divergences widen Some of the euro-zone’s survey indicators have ticked up in the past month. However, they almost unanimously warn of a renewed recession in the region, with the composite PMI, for example, pointing to... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy likely grew by 2% in fourth quarter Following the rebound in third-quarter GDP, with growth of 3.5% annualised, we estimate that fourth-quarter GDP grew by a more modest 2.0%. Stronger growth in consumption and, to a lesser extent... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The pick-up in Egypt’s headline inflation in December has increased the likelihood of another rate hike when the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) meets in February. 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel/Sarkozy summit adds to break-up risk Merkel and Sarkozy’s pledge to accelerate their contributions to the euro-zone’s bail-out fund following today’s summit was vaguely encouraging. But far more striking was their lukewarm support for... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food prices drive Mexican inflation higher While Mexican inflation has risen in recent months, the increase appears to have been due to higher food prices and not the sharp depreciation of the peso. With the economy set to slow this year, and... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC just biding time until next month The MPC looks unlikely to do anything more while the asset purchases which began in October are still underway, especially given the recent slight improvement in the economic data. However, we doubt... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador feels the squeeze from lower oil prices Ecuador’s oil-dependent economy showed clear signs of slowing in Q3 2011 as crude prices fell. A sizeable current account deficit and limited external financing options make the dollarised economy... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil meets inflation target by the skin of its teeth Perhaps a little against the odds, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) just about met its inflation target last year as headline inflation slowed to 6.5% in December. Although it may be sticky, inflation... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Consumer price inflation may have stabilised in December, partly due to seasonal factors. But with spare capacity rising, further significant falls are likely after Chinese New Year. 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Final PMI (Dec.) The latest euro-zone inflation and PMI business activity data do nothing to alter our view that the euro-zone is set for another very tough year in 2012. 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation poised to fall back in 2012 Consumer price inflation reached almost 3% in 2011, its highest rate in several years, with higher energy and food prices the main culprits. As a result of that pick up in inflation, the increase in... 27th December 2011 · 1 min read
