Japan Chart Pack Activity weak and outlook uncertain Economic conditions took a turn for the worse in November, as output, spending and exports all declined. Sentiment indicators for December were mixed with business confidence mostly stable, but... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation has further to fall Inflation rose sharply in 2011 as a whole relative to 2010 across the region. However, we expect below-trend growth and lower commodity prices to pull down inflation significantly this year. With... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) December's drop in consumer price inflation, to 2.3% from 2.9%, reflects a trend that is likely to continue this year. As further declines in underlying inflation coincide with slower economic growth... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will China pull the rug from under Latin America? This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Latin America Watch. This will analyse major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at the impact... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices were unchanged in December and the annual CPI inflation rate declined to 3.0%, from 3.4%. Favourable base effects will generate an even sharper drop in that annual inflation rate over... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch GDP & inflation forecasts downgrade The January meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will yield updated forecasts for GDP and inflation but probably little else. We don’t expect any changes in the Board’s monetary policy stance... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Dec) The strong rebound in manufacturing output at the end of last year is encouraging, as is the further decline in producer price inflation. 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Unexpectedly strong in Q4, but property problems looming China’s Q4 data suggest the economy is stronger than previously thought. But problems in real estate are mounting as developers’ holdings of unsold properties swell. Meanwhile, investment appears to... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) & Euro-zone Final CPI (Dec.) January’s sharp monthly rise in the German ZEW index is certainly an encouraging sign, but the index still points to tough times ahead. 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation took another step down in December and further chunky falls lie ahead, helped by the recent announcements of gas and electricity price cuts. This clears the way for significantly more asset... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s headline inflation falls but rate cut unlikely before March Data released today show a big drop in headline inflation, to 7.5% y/y in December. But the key measure of core inflation fell only slightly. Consequently, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to wait... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation edged up slightly in December as a rise in core inflation (non-food prices) helped to offset a drop in food inflation. 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to cut by mid-year The Bank of Korea (BoK) has become increasingly worried about the growth outlook, but lingering inflation concerns are dissuading the central bank from loosening policy. We believe that inflation is... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy stimulus to support growth in Asia The ongoing debt crisis in the euro-zone is likely to weigh on growth in Asia in 2012-13. Although the region’s most open economies are set to slow quite sharply, we forecast that growth in the region... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s disappointing retail sales figures suggest it was not a happy holiday season for retailers. For the fourth quarter as a whole, our calculations now suggest that real consumption increased... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
