UK Economics Weekly Should we trust the upbeat business surveys? The last few weeks have seen mixed messages on the health of the economic recovery, with the upbeat tone of the business surveys contrasting with initial official estimates of output in the first two... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: UK could now be in deflation Tuesday’s inflation figures could well show that the UK entered deflation last month. But the fact that this mainly reflects lower energy prices makes it a good thing for the economy and there is no... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Consumer price inflation held steady in March but we expect a drop in food price inflation to pull it lower over the coming months. Although inflation is likely to remain in positive territory, a... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Most of Emerging Asia set for faster growth Most economies in Emerging Asia are likely to record decent growth over the next couple of years. However, with the pace of expansion in the region’s biggest economy, China, set to ease further in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Mexico remained close to the central bank’s 3% target last month and we expect it to remain around there over the next eighteen months. The benign inflation outlook, combined with recent... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is deflation good for the euro-zone after all? The recent bout of negative inflation in the euro-zone appears to have contributed to a modest upturn in economic growth. But it would be premature to conclude that deflation will prove to be a good... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is rising food inflation a concern? Inflation is likely to have accelerated in March, in large part due to rising food prices caused by recent unseasonable rains. But weekly data suggest that the majority of the inflation spike may have... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 11.5% y/y last month was driven almost entirely by a rise in food and utility prices. As a result, we think it’s unlikely to have much impact on monetary policy... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) The small rise in Czech inflation last month, to 0.2% y/y, slightly reduces the probability that the National Bank will ease monetary conditions further at next month’s MPC meeting. Nonetheless, with... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery prospects clouded by Greece Recent indicators have brought signs of a renewed recovery in the euro-zone economy, reflecting the beneficial effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate. But the picture... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth to recover after weak Q1 For a second successive year, global GDP growth dropped sharply in Q1 due to a slowdown in the US and China. But business surveys, which may be a better gauge of the underlying health of the economy... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Uptick in inflation likely to reverse soon After edging up in March, inflation is set to ease again – although remain positive – in coming months before rebounding in the second half of the year. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Door for further rate cuts still open Governor Rajan opted not to follow up on March’s rate cut in today’s policy review, with the repo and the reverse repo rates kept on hold at 7.50% and 6.50% respectively. But further rate cuts are... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation is dead, but should rise again before long For a country that has spent most of its recent history enduring high inflation, the recent release of figures showing that CPI inflation in the UK has now fallen to zero was a watershed moment. What... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Revised data show that wage growth remains anaemic Revised data show that the base pay hikes agreed upon in last year’s spring wage negotiations were not reflected in aggregate base pay, providing another headwind to higher inflation. 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers still have plenty of ammunition Growth looks likely to have slowed sharply in Q1, in spite of recent cuts to the required reserve ratio and benchmark interest rates. This has raised concerns that policymakers are now struggling to... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
