Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in at a weaker-than-expected 4.7% y/y in May but the continued strength of core services inflation means that it is increasingly likely that Banxico will leave...

7th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Export-led recovery, higher ECB forecast

Data released this week showed that the euro-zone’s recovery in the first quarter was mainly driven by exports, with domestic demand still subdued. Nevertheless, the recent stronger-than-expected...

7th June 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Dust settling on election, MPC pendulum swinging

Indian equities have ended an extraordinary week higher than where they began, which we think partly reflects the fact that investors have realised that a coalition government is not a terminal blow...

7th June 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

RBI still on course for August rate cut

The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but, notably, two of out of the six MPC members voted for a cut. With inflation likely to continue falling over the coming months, we...

7th June 2024 · 3 mins read

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (June 2024)

The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but, notably, two of out of the six MPC members voted for a cut. With inflation likely to continue falling over the coming months, we...

7th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Virtuous cycle will go into reverse next year

The jump in wage growth in April provides tentative evidence that the strong pay results agreed in this year's spring wage negotiations are starting to filter through and we expect regular earnings...

7th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

Why are shipping costs surging again?

Container shipping costs have rebounded in the past month amid a pick-up in demand for goods from China and a possible front-loading of festive orders due to concerns about future shipping disruptions...

6th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Window for policy tightening starting to close

While there’s a chance that the Bank of Japan may reduce its bond purchases at the upcoming meeting, we think it will wait until its July meeting before making that announcement. We also expect the...

6th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Focus

Why is wage growth in Korea so weak?

The recent weakness of wage growth in Korea seems at odds with the country’s low unemployment rate. But a closer look at the data suggests that the unemployment rate is overstating the health of the...

4th June 2024 · 9 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (May)

Switzerland’s inflation rate remained at 1.4% in May as an increase in rents was offset by a further fall in core goods prices. With inflation in line with the SNB’s forecast published in March and...

4th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Window for policy tightening is closing

A rebound in real household incomes should ensure that the recent slump in output should turn into above-trend GDP growth of 1% over the next couple of years. Regardless, inflation will continue to...

4th June 2024 · 18 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Answering your questions on Mexico’s election

Our initial response to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election can be found here. We also held a Drop-in earlier today. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed...

3rd June 2024 · 7 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs point to a rebound in global industry in Q2

The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry has continued to gather momentum so far in Q2 and that price pressures have increased somewhat. But that probably won’t...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (May)

The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 75.45% y/y in May (consensus 74.8%) is slightly disappointing. It had looked like price pressures were easing in recent months, but the 3.4% m/m...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May)

The Manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Asia remained weak in May but have been a poor guide to the hard data on activity over the past year anyway. However, the PMIs have been a decent guide to price...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read