Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation drops to near-three-year low Emerging Market (EM) inflation slowed to a near-three-year low in November. Fears of a food-led inflation shock this year have proved to be misplaced, as we had expected. While inflation is likely to... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation risks still low We expect the major central banks to persist with ultra-loose monetary policy for at least two more years but inflation to remain at historically low levels. This is largely because global demand is... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central banks going soft on inflation? Recent proposed changes to the monetary policy framework in several countries may signal slightly greater tolerance for inflation. But they do not mean the authorities are relaxing their grip on price... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q4 2012 Business confidence in China has recovered slightly though it remains subdued. Banks are eager to lend but firms show little appetite for loans. Meanwhile, households are increasingly optimistic and... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) Continued high inflation is maintaining the squeeze on consumers’ spending power in the run-up to Christmas. Although we still expect inflation to fall back eventually, the prospect of further utility... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Nov. 12) The drop back in inflation below the 2% target in November will allow the Fed to continue focusing its efforts on boosting the real economy. This is just as well when, after stripping out the effect... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Final CPI (Nov.) & Emp. (Q3) Despite rising for a second month running in December, the euro-zone composite PMI remained well below the “no-change” level, consistent with a deepening recession in Q4. 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to weaken further in 2013 Inflation is falling sharply across Central and South Eastern Europe and we expect this to continue into next year. This should encourage further policy stimulus in the Czech Republic and Poland... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: a weak start to Q4 A slew of data released this morning indicate that after slowing sharply in Q3, the South African economy got off to a poor start in Q4. But with inflation likely to accelerate further in the coming... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is it time to inject some reality into inflation targeting? Inflation continues to be boosted by external factors over which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can exercise little influence. One way to give the MPC more scope to help the economy could be to... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What to expect from emerging markets in 2013 Emerging markets (EMs) will remain a relative bright spot in 2013. But with export demand from the developed world likely to remain subdued and structural problems dragging on growth in many of the... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs economic recovery is faltering Today’s disappointing trade data have added to our doubts about the sustainability of China’s rebound. The weekend’s figures on investment and industrial production were more encouraging but they... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a threat is inflation to emerging markets? Inflation is unlikely to be a major threat to most emerging markets in 2013. The two exceptions to this are Venezuela and Argentina, where high inflation will put downward pressure on their currencies... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) China’s consumer price inflation is picking up and could spike much higher around February’s Chinese New Year holiday. It will be higher than today once that seasonal distortion passes, but we don’t... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf overheating fears fail to materialise The massive fiscal stimulus packages unveiled by Gulf economies in the wake of the Arab Spring raised fears at the time that they would lead to economic overheating and rising inflation. Fortunately... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would exiting countries fare outside the euro-zone? Contrary to some suggestions, there are good reasons to think that, beyond the initial economic andfinancial disruption caused by an exit from the euro-zone, most of the current peripheral... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
