Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb./Jan.) The latest euro-zone data revealed an unpalatable combination of stubborn inflation and rising unemployment at the start of the year, suggesting that the recent improvement in sentiment towards the... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus expected in the second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will maintain its policy interest rate at 1% next week, with the same decision now likely at the next meeting in April too, we still think that the... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why is the UK lagging behind? Since the financial crisis began, the UK has been the worst performer of all the major advanced economies. And the factors that explain the underperformance, together with new shocks that look set to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s rise in German CPI inflation reflected a rise in energy inflation, which is unlikely to be sustained. But for now, relatively high inflation is one reason to expect consumer spending to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rate cuts are coming in Vietnam Falling inflation gives the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) scope to cut interest rates to support growth. However, large cuts could end up destabilising the fragile economy. The SBV will need to be... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack High oil prices to swell Gulf coffers The jump in oil prices over the past month has sharpened the divide between the relatively bright outlook for the Middle East’s resource-rich countries, and the less rosy outlook for its resource-poor... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How would emerging Asia cope with a euro break-up? The major impact of euro-zone break-up on emerging Asia would come from the resulting weakness of export demand. If the break-up was relatively smooth and the US continued to grow, as we think is... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Signs of a return to “two-speed” growth Activity in much of Latin America appears to have picked up over the past couple of months, following the slowdown seen over the second half of last year. But while worries about the overall pace of... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Is this the real deal? Hopes that the US economy has finally embarked on a significant and sustained recovery are likely to be dashed by events overseas. There is little doubt that the economy has strengthened in the early... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in energy prices won't stop inflation falling Mervyn King’s forecast of a “zig-zag” year grabbed the headlines after last week’s Inflation Report, with the Governor warning that June’s extra bank holiday would lead to a bumpy path for output this... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January's consumer price data are a mixed bag. Headline inflation fell to a ten-month low of 2.9%, from 3.0%, while core inflation edged up to a three-year high of 2.3%, from 2.2%. Favourable base... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) January's increase in consumer price inflation, to 2.5% from 2.3%, is mostly a reflection of some recent noise in new motor vehicle and electricity prices. Since these prices are also included in the... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) On the face of it, January’s official retail sales figures suggest that a recovery in high street spending is gaining momentum. But there are reasons to doubt the strength of the official data. In any... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation remains weak January’s inflation data in Emerging Europe has been a particularly mixed bunch, reflecting the impact of various indirect tax changes as well as the tail end of the commodity price shock a year ago... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank deleveraging still a threat to growth Fears that euro-zone banks might suddenly withdraw their funding to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe have eased markedly over the past month, due in large part to the success of the ECB’s long-term... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) On the face of it, February’s Bank of England Inflation Report suggested that the MPC is unlikely to extend its asset purchase programme much further. But we think that inflation will fall further... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
