Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged up to 2.1% y/y in May, but price pressures are still subdued. Against the backdrop of slower growth and weak commodity prices, we expect this to remain the case for the... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May. 15) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate nudged up in May, the big picture is that it remains very low in spite of the Riksbank’s aggressive policy easing. As such, the central bank will need to do... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation to 8.5% y/y last month was driven entirely by an increase in food inflation as well as regulated price hikes. Meanwhile, the infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 13.1% y/y in May was almost entirely driven a sharp rise in food inflation and, as a result, we don’t expect it to have an impact on the MPC’s rate decision tomorrow... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s Sedlabanki begins hiking cycle Iceland’s central bank raised its main interest rates by 50bp today, as expected, in what looks likely to be the beginning of a tightening cycle designed to counter strong domestic demand growth and... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) If there were any lingering concerns that the weaker peso might trigger a rise in inflation in Mexico, the fact that CPI fell to below its 3% target last month should quash them. This supports our... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for crisis-stricken Venezuela? With Venezuela’s economic crisis intensifying, attention is starting to focus on how the country might get out of this mess. Two options have been suggested in recent weeks – one is the establishment... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1) The second estimate and breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q1 confirmed that growth in the early months of the year was driven by domestic demand, presumably partly reflecting the positive effects of lower... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary CPI (May) Stronger-than-expected inflation figures for last month in both the Czech Republic and Hungary will remove any lingering concerns about deflation. However, large amounts of spare capacity will keep... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) The small drop in consumer confidence last month masks a rebound in households’ income expectations, which suggests that they may increasingly be willing to spend some of the windfall from lower... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May.) Today's data support our view that, the usual volatility in food inflation aside, price pressures are rising and that deflation concerns are overplayed. 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has food price inflation reached a trough? There are good reasons to think that food price inflation has reached a trough. That said, intense supermarket competition seems unlikely to lift soon, meaning that inflation in the sector could... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (May) The further decline in inflation in Chile last month means that the annual rate is now right on the upper bound of the target range, having spent over a year above the 4% threshold. The continued fall... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Monsoon threat to inflation overplayed Inflation is likely to have stayed subdued in May. There are rising concerns that a weaker-than-normal monsoon could push inflation up in the months ahead. But we remain sanguine: many factors in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Price pressures on the rise A seasonal slide in vegetable prices that should prove short-lived may have pulled inflation down in May. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to have picked up. We expect... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
