Asia Chart Pack Bottoming out? Growth in Emerging Asia, which has slowed sharply since the start of the year, may have bottomed out. According to our GDP Tracker, which uses monthly data for output and expenditure, regional GDP... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Thinking about the new "new normal" There are reasons to believe that the recent period of sluggish economic growth and near-zero interest rates are coming to a close. While the economy's potential growth rate is probably now only... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Employment gains mean that QE3 tapering still on track Even as estimates for second-quarter GDP growth have been revised lower in response to the disappointing incoming news on activity, the continued resilience of monthly employment gains has persuaded... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun.) The modest increase in the official core inflation figure in June, to 1.3% from 1.1% in the month before, was mainly due to specific base-year effects. We expect underlying inflation to stay at the... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s inflation figures suggested that underlying price pressures in the economy are still fairly weak and have therefore kept the door wide open to more action from the Monetary Policy Committee at... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Broad money growth has stabilised at a healthy rate, but the further slowdown in the growth rate of bank lending is disconcerting. 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s consumer prices and industrial production releases had something for everyone at the Fed but, on balance, they leave the central bank on course to slow the pace of its asset purchases at the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's rising inflation makes near-term rate cut even less likely Today’s slight increase in India's wholesale price inflation will not have greatly alarmed policymakers, but the increase in consumer price inflation is a bigger worry. The chances of the Reserve Bank... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households unlikely to welcome higher inflation Inflation expectations have jumped since the Bank of Japan’s announcement of more aggressive easing in April. Higher inflation should be beneficial for borrowers as it will erode the real value of... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Time to shift the focus to “core-core” inflation? Media reports suggest that the Japanese government plans to focus increasingly on the CPI excluding food and energy when gauging progress towards overcoming deflation. We do not expect this to make... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fears of overheating in Ghana are overdone, for now A pick-up in GDP growth and a rise in inflation, against a backdrop of hefty twin deficits, have led to concerns that Ghana’s economy is overheating. But while a number of economic vulnerabilities are... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further aggressive rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked both its main policy rate and the Fasbi rate by 50bp amid concerns about the currency and the outlook for inflation. Consumer price inflation is likely to rise as high... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun. 13) June’s pick-up in consumer price inflation was the result of increases in vegetable and pork price inflation. Core inflation fell. Looking ahead, although vegetable price inflation may now stabilise... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fading price pressures bolster case for stimulus The list of indicators signalling that the recovery is gaining momentum continued to get longer last week. However, the recent news on the inflation outlook – which has perhaps gone relatively... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up in June. It is likely to continue rising in coming months but not by enough to cause alarm, given the state of the economy and the likelihood that credit... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy decelerates in second quarter After being propelled by a rebound in energy exports earlier this year, economic growth appears to have decelerated heading into the second quarter. Moderate export growth, cautious business... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
