Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan sticking to hawkish script Import price inflation slowed sharply in August and if the yen continues to strengthen, it may turn negative as soon as September. That may prompt the Bank of Japan to judge near-term risks to... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut Inflation keeps falling more quickly than Norges Bank’s forecasts but policymakers will be uneasy about the renewed weakening of the krone. We expect them to repeat that the policy rate will be... 12th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus The post-election UK economic landscape The structural deterioration in the fiscal situation suggests that a tight grip on the public finances in the Budget on 30th October will be necessary. That’s why we think the government will maintain... 12th September 2024 · 14 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Aug) The August PPI data provide more encouragement for the Fed that inflation has been tamed. Together the CPI and PPI data point to a muted 0.14% m/m increase in the core PCE deflator last month, with... 12th September 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) The slight rise in India’s headline CPI inflation in August reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank will proceed with a bit of caution and keep rates unchanged in its next meeting in October. But it... 12th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest hard data and survey indicators point to a slowdown in both manufacturing... 12th September 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting... 11th September 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug) The 0.28% m/m increase in core CPI in August appears to be consistent with a slightly below-target 0.15% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. But we doubt that modest... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ will eventually cut rates to 2.25% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has always ended up cutting interest rates by more than it anticipated at the start of previous easing cycles. We think this time won’t be any different and expect the... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2024) Brazil’s headline inflation dropped back to 4.2% y/y in August, but there was yet another increase in underlying services inflation which sets the stage for an interest rate hike at next week’s policy... 10th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation strengthened from 25.7% y/y in July to 26.2% y/y in August, breaking a five month streak of decelerating inflation, after electricity and fuel price hikes. We expect... 10th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in August, alongside the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week, mean that Banxico is on track to lower its policy rate... 9th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2024) Despite a weather-related surge in vegetable prices, a fall in energy prices and core inflation meant CPI only rose a touch. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened on the back of worsening... 9th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the further fall in wage growth and headline inflation, all but guarantees... 6th September 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Economy in midst of mild slowdown In light of the latest activity data, we’ve made slight downward revisions to our GDP growth forecasts for India – we now think the economy will grow by 6.5% in 2024 (our previous forecast was 7.0%)... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
