China Economics Update Higher food prices alone won’t derail China’s economy The recent surge in global agricultural commodity prices – if sustained – will add to the downside risks to China’s economy but it is unlikely to be a decisive factor. Overall inflationary pressures... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will global food prices prevent a recovery in real incomes? The 30% increase in global agricultural commodity prices over the last month has prompted fears of a renewed squeeze on households’ incomes. However, food prices would have to rise much further to... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Olympics explains part of the employment puzzle A close look at last week’s figures suggests that some of the apparent divergence between the strong employment and weak GDP figures may be explained by the Olympics. Come Games time, more than 100... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Record cereal prices not a big inflation threat Some agricultural commodity prices have hit record highs this week, but the rate of increase of these prices is much lower than it was in 2007 or 2011, while energy prices are still lower than they... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rates more likely to fall than rise The Mexican Central Bank (BANXICO) left interest rates on hold at 4.5% this afternoon. Strong economic growth and a recent pick-up in inflation mean that the three-year pause may last a while longer... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun. 12) June's rise in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 2.0% from 1.8%, mainly reflects transportation base year effects. With inflation expectations well anchored and economic growth likely to remain... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why we expect weaker growth than the IMF The IMF downgraded its global growth forecasts last week including those for Japan, but they still remain well above our own. In this Weekly we explain why our forecasts differ from theirs and where... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation eases slightly, further rate cuts on horizon There has been no let-up in the bad news from India. Economic activity remained very weak in the second quarter of the year while inflation is still above 7%. This combination is set to persist in the... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Jubilee boost short-lived Although consumer spending appears to have boosted at the start of June by the extended bank holiday, the fillip did not last for long and the underlying trend in spending still looks pretty mediocre... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Price pressures have eased across the Middle East Inflation pressures are easing in most countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. The drop in global commodity prices has led to a fall in food price inflation across the region. Meanwhile... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery on hold as economy continues to slow The Japanese economy continued to slow throughout the second quarter and businesses expect only an anaemic recovery in Q3. The economy remains reliant on government support, with reconstruction... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone drags down global recovery The euro-zone crisis is taking its toll on the rest of the world. Activity slowed in all major economies in the second quarter, including the US, China and Japan. We expect growth to pick up in the US... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) Consumer prices were unchanged in June and the annual inflation rate remained at 1.7%, underlining that the Fed can afford to focus its monetary policy on the slowdown in the real economy. Even though... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) UK inflation fell by more than expected for the second month in a row in June. Inflation is finally within sight of the 2% target and we still expect it to be well below the target by the end of the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Jubilee boost masks weaker picture The effects of early June’s Jubilee celebrations are now starting to come through in the economic data. Last week’s releases provided evidence of the positive effects of the extended holiday, but... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
