Africa Economics Update Food inflation: no need to worry just yet The recent spike in global agricultural prices is likely to feed through to a pick-up in food inflation in most African economies in early 2013. But the shock to food inflation should be much smaller... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Jump in Indian inflation pushes back rate cuts Today’s announcement that inflation rose to 7.6% in August eliminates any residual chance that India’s central bank will cut rates on Monday. Indeed, we now expect monetary policy to remain on hold... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher agricultural prices to have little inflation impact Even if it is sustained, this year’s rise in agricultural prices will have little impact on headline consumer prices, particularly in advanced economies. What’s more, we expect commodity prices to... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers focussed on inflation risks for now The surprise decision this afternoon by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hike interest rates reflects growing concerns over rising inflation among policymakers. Another hike in rates is possible by... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, which will help to ease fears that the economy is overheating. 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is inflation about to reach a turning point? Headline inflation rates across emerging Asia, which had been trending lower this year, look set to pick up in coming months. Nonetheless, inflation in the region is unlikely to rise sharply and... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tariff cuts to keep Brazilian inflation from accelerating According to our estimates, the cuts in electricity tariffs announced by Brazil’s government last week should broadly offset any pick-up in food inflation that is likely to follow the recent spike in... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up slightly last month. It is likely to rise further in coming months, constraining policymakers’ ability to support the economy. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Ind. Production (Jul.) & Producer Prices (Aug.) While July’s industrial figures showed that production bounced back fully from June’s drop, the sector still looks likely to struggle in the coming months. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s policymakers ready to act again All five central banks which announce their policy rate decisions this week are likely to signal that global worries are a key downside risk for local growth. Only in Korea do we expect a policy rate... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Riksbank will be the last in the cycle. If the euro-zone debt crisis intensifies as we expect, interest rates may eventually fall well below 1%. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Glimmers of reform ahead of leadership handover China will unveil a new group of leaders in the next few weeks. There are tentative signs that they will finally start to grapple with the structural challenges facing the economy. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak economy to prompt more stimulus by end of year The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today was unsurprising and may partly have reflected a desire to wait to see what comes out of today’s ECB meeting. We still expect more asset purchases to... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: second-half recovery looks like wishful thinking Despite government efforts to stimulate the economy, there is scant evidence of a rebound in Argentine growth. Rampant inflation is eating into real wage growth and squeezing household spending, while... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Latest figures compound fiscal dilemma The poor run of public borrowing figures and growing calls for the Government to do more to support the economy have intensified the fiscal dilemma facing the Chancellor. 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone back in recession Recent indicators have supported the view that the euro-zone is now firmly in recession. GDP fell by 0.2% in Q2 after stagnating in Q1 and falling by 0.3% in Q4. And the business surveys so far point... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
