Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Oct.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator points to a slight improvement in Argentine growth over the past month or so. Even so, we think that GDP probably contracted by around 1.5% y/y in Q3... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Inflation in consumer prices was probably little changed in September. But the outlook is for higher inflation over coming months, which will make policymakers more cautious about further stimulus. 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How far has the inflation outlook deteriorated? As things stand, the spike in global food prices since early June is likely to push up annual inflation in Latin America by around 0.5-1.0%-pts over the next six months or so. But while this is likely... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Lower inflation around the corner We expect annual CPI inflation to fall from an already muted 1.6% this year to only 1.2% next year, as GDP growth slows and economic slack increases. The outlook for 2014 looks much the same. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguayan rate hike will do little to tame inflation The Uruguayan Central Bank’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bps is unlikely to do much to tackle stubbornly high inflation. Strong price pressures are largely due to structural rigidities in the... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation will not help to ease the pressure on households. Nonetheless, the increase is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained upward trend. 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The implications of the proposed inflation reforms Last week, methodological reforms to correct long-standing deficiencies in the RPI, RPIX and CPI inflation measures became a step closer to being implemented. These reforms look set to have a big... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to stabilise at low levels despite more QE Inflation has fallen sharply this year and is likely to remain low. Admittedly, the rise in the price of oil and some agricultural commodities since June will push the headline inflation rate back up... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: inflation will rise with or without a grain export ban The Russian authorities have raised the prospect of export bans on grains to contain local food inflation. But past experience suggests that such moves have had little impact on domestic prices, and... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: Has INDEC had a reality check? The most striking thing about Argentina’s Q2 GDP data is that the upward bias to growth, which has been evident in the official figures since mid-2007, seems to have eased. Even so, there are no signs... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug. 12) The official 'core' inflation figure, which nudged down to 1.6% in August from 1.7% in July, is likely to decline further in the coming months as external and domestic risks dampen GDP growth. With... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Nigeria still in wait and see mode The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today and is likely to stay in wait and see mode over the coming months as the effects of a spike in global food prices feed... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) August’s fall in inflation suggests that July’s rise was just a temporary blip in a gradual downward trend. Barring a further rise in oil prices, inflation still appears to be on track to reach the... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Non-oil sector spurs modest pick-up in Nigerian growth The Nigerian economy picked up pace in the second quarter of this year, but problems in the oil sector mean that it is still growing below its potential. Nonetheless, with inflation remaining above... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian government bites the bullet on reforms Friday’s decision to liberalise foreign investment goes some way to dispel the impression of policy paralysis in Delhi. However, implementation of these reforms will be slow, and further measures are... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) Consumer prices increased by a sizeable 0.6% m/m in August, largely thanks to a 9.0% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Nevertheless, even after that big monthly gain, the annual rate of inflation only... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
