Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers cast shadow over recovery The European economy looks set for another year of weak growth in 2014, with the euro-zone likely to do little more than stagnate. Against that background, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China to slow, but faster growth elsewhere Most of Emerging Asia should enjoy a steady recovery in 2014-15 on the back of loose monetary policy and an expected recovery in the developed world. China is the main exception. Recently announced... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) The fall in CPI inflation in December to the 2% target for the first time in four years shows that the economic recovery is not prompting price pressures to build. Indeed, CPI inflation looks likely... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Fed will eventually have to hike rates more rapidly The markets are happy to take the Fed at its word that it won't begin to raise rates until mid-2015 and will tighten only gradually after that, but we fear that rising wage and price inflation will... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Inflation unlikely to be a major threat in 2014 Inflation across sub-Saharan Africa is likely to remain broadly stable in 2014. Admittedly, the region is more susceptible than other EM regions to food price shocks related to drought. But in the... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Consumer price inflation fell further in December on the back of a sharp drop in food inflation. It may rebound this month due to the usual price volatility around Chinese New Year but is likely to... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to keep rates on hold until 2015 The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold today for the eighth consecutive month. With the economy set to stage a gradual recovery over the next year and inflationary pressures likely to... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The leader of the pack? The UK economy has leapt towards the top of the international growth table and there are good reasons to think it can stay there. We now expect the economy to grow by 3% this year and next. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures still building Recent euro-zone inflation data have provided firmer signs that CPI inflation will remain well below the ECB’s 2% stability ceiling for longer than the Bank itself expects. Admittedly, headline CPI... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling unemployment unlikely to prompt rate hike While unemployment is falling swiftly towards the 7% threshold above which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has pledged to keep official interest rates on hold, it remains unlikely that rates will... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.), PPI (Nov.) & Ger. Unemp. (Dec.) December's fall in euro-zone CPI inflation will add to concerns that the region could suffer from a bout of deflation and increase the pressure on the ECB to take more action to support the economy. 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Thailand ends the year in crisis Thailand heads into 2014 in political crisis. Anti-government protests that began in November have pushed the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, into dissolving parliament and calling new elections... 24th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) With core inflation unexpectedly falling even closer to the bottom of the 1% to 3% target range in November, the Bank of Canada will be more worried than before about the downside risks to inflation. 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s hiking cycle looks to be over The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept policy rates on hold at its meeting today. Given that the economic recovery is still very fragile, the central bank is likely to remain patient with inflation... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) We’re not convinced that the low rate of inflation in November will prevent the Fed from announcing tomorrow that it will begin to taper its asset purchases, although the decision remains finely... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
