Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to edge up There are tentative signs that the slowdown in Emerging Market (EM) inflation seen over the past year has bottomed out. We expect EM inflation to quicken over the next six months, mainly due to faster... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Nominal GDP target not a silver bullet The idea of nominal GDP targeting is gaining ground in academic circles as an alternative way for policymakers to boost the struggling economy when interest rates are close to zero. The case for a... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut in November now looks off the cards South African inflation surprised to the upside in September, and we think it is likely to accelerate further to peak at around 6% y/y in early 2013. As such, we now think the Reserve Bank will keep... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) Core inflation fell further below the Bank of Canada's 2% target in September, to 1.3%, its lowest rate in over a year. With slower anticipated GDP growth this quarter and next, underlying inflation... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Price pressures continue to ease in Saudi Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate fell for the seventh consecutive month in September, hitting a three-year low. This will help to ease fears that the economy is overheating, which, in turn... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: fiscal monetisation to drive inflation higher There are some parallels between the money printing being undertaken by Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) and quantitative easing policies in the West. But in contrast to the developed economies... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will higher food prices drive up EM inflation? Headline inflation is set to pick up across most of the emerging world over the next six months, in the wake of global food price increases earlier this year. However, the impact should be short-lived... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Sep.) At the start of next year, the MPC will have to decide what to do with those gilts purchased in its quantitative easing (QE) programme that are about to mature. We expect the Committee to maintain its... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Business rate rises will become less painful Today’s consumer prices figures brought the news that RPI inflation in September – the rate which will be used to uprate business rates next April – was 2.6%. While this will be another chunky rise in... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.), EZ Trade & Final CPI (Aug./Sep.) October’s rise in the German ZEW index suggests that the prospect of ECB bond purchases has continued to ease investors’ fears for the economy. And August’s trade data suggest that the euro-zone as a... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s fall in inflation took it within a whisker of its 2% target. Although this is likely to be the last drop for a while, we still expect the weakness of the economy to pull inflation... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation pushed up by diesel price hike The increase in India’s headline inflation rate, to 7.8% in September, reinforces our view that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates again this year. 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports point to continued weakness at end-Q3 The September import data suggest China’s economy was still weak at the end of Q3. By contrast, last month’s exports were unexpectedly strong, as they were for both Korea and Taiwan, with demand from... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s appreciation another positive for inflation outlook Tomorrow’s inflation figures could show CPI inflation falling below its target for the first time since November 2009. And we still see scope for inflation to fall further over the next year or two... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Producer Prices (Sep.) & Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence shot up to a five-year high of 83.1 in October, from 78.3, but we're not convinced this upturn will lead to faster consumption growth. For a... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 12) September’s data show that inflationary pressures eased further in Egypt, with core inflation falling to a six-year low. But an interest rate cut is unlikely next week. 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
