China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.13) Seasonal shifts in food prices are causing the usual volatility in inflation in the early months of 2014 including, it appears, a drop in the headline rate last month. Stepping back, price pressures... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Lower Canadian dollar points to rebound in inflation Although inflation has been uncomfortably low for some time now, the risk of a slide into deflation is still fairly modest. Long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Canadian... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb. 14) January’s slowing of growth in the broad money supply and lending confirms that the recovery is neither generating inflation nor being fuelled by an unsustainable pick-up in borrowing. 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stars still aligned for more ECB support Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s euro-zone consumer prices figures don’t change the picture of very weak price pressures in the currency union and hence don’t rule out further policy action from the ECB next week. 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is QQE working? Almost one year after the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) by the Bank of Japan, the policy is working as well as could reasonably be expected. However, despite initial signs of... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Today's data confirm that the economy is picking up speed ahead of the consumption tax hike. However, the first fall in inflation since the start of QQE shows that the BoJ still has more work to do... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains subdued despite currency weakness In aggreate terms, there is little sign that currency weakness is leading to higher emerging market (EM) inflation. With few signs of a build-up in domestic price pressures either, we expect EM... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about the weather? Extreme weather conditions have made the economic outlook in many countries less clear in recent months. However, experience suggests that the impact on GDP and inflation will probably turn out to be... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation likely to fall back soon With the yen broadly stable since last May, import price inflation has already started to moderate and will probably fall sharply in the next few months. As wage growth is still muted and spare... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in core inflation to 1.4% in January, from 1.3%, reflects both base-year effects and possibly some early impact from the weaker Canadian dollar. The latter is something that we anticipate... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan. 14) It’s possible that the unusually bad weather is masking a strengthening in underlying consumer price pressure that will only become clear in a few months’ time. Despite the fall to 1.6% in January... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Producer Prices (Jan.) The revamp of the producer prices data has made the release much more comprehensive, but it hasn’t changed the bigger picture. There is not much sign of any near-term inflationary pressure. 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African inflation to breach target range (again) South African inflation rose in January and the effects of a weak rand means it is likely to accelerate above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range again. This is likely to spur the... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices figures showed that inflationary pressures are continuing to ease steadily and so presented another reason to be upbeat about the outlook for GDP growth this year. 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Chinese New Year usually delivers a spike in consumer price inflation, however inflation remained subdued in January. 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
