Africa Economics Update Inflation taking divergent paths across the region Inflation remains lower in both east and South Africa compared to west Africa, but a combination of slowing inflation in west Africa and the fact that central banks here set higher inflation targets... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation is good news for consumers, but with unemployment still at a record high in December, incomes and spending will remain under severe strain. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation looks to have bottomed out Having dropped to a near-three-year low, EM inflation looks to have now bottomed out. Inflation is likely to rise further in the near term due to strengthening demandside pressures and increases in... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's stubborn inflation limits room for further loosening The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) met expectations that it would cut its key policy rate today. However, the accompanying policy statement suggests there may be only limited further policy loosening... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The surprising drop in December's official core inflation rate to 1.1%, from 1.2% in November, suggests that there is much more slack in the economy than most economists previously thought. With sub... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rising inflation narrows space for further easing A recent pick-up in inflation has reduced the space for further policy easing in Brazil, and we expect the Selic rate to remain at 7.25% until at least mid-year. Further ahead, if we are right to... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Dec. 12) Inflation dipped further below the Fed's 2% target in December, leaving it free to focus its policy efforts on reducing the still elevated unemployment rate. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Dec. 12) The apparent strength of retail sales growth over the final few months of last year suggests that the looming fiscal cliff, including the risk of higher taxes, did little to deter consumers over the... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to rise - but not just because of the pound Fears that the recent fall in the Egyptian pound will lead to a sharp rise in inflation are overplayed. Instead, tax hikes and subsidy cuts are likely to have a much greater impact on headline... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) Inflation held at 2.7% in December, marking the third full year of above-target price rises. Inflation is likely to stay close to this rate in the near-term, pushing real pay down further this year... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Latest data support case for rate cut in India India’s growth rate, rather than rebounding as many hoped, may be stabilising at a low level. But the latest fall in underlying inflation does at least provide a green light for the central bank to... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Freezing weather drove food prices and inflation higher last month but, as we head into the Chinese New Year period, underlying price pressures appear subdued. 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation could rise above 6% The rise in Brazilian inflation last month is particularly worrying since it came despite a moderation in food inflation. With plans to cut electricity tariffs now under threat from a drought that has... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update RPI inflation should still fall despite lack of reforms Given that the National Statistician has decided not to alter the way RPI inflation is measured, the RPI rate will continue to run above the CPI measure for the foreseeable future. However, we still... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Final Composite PMI (Dec. 12) The news that both activity and inflation in the euro-zone remained subdued at the end of last year will increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to provide further policy support ahead of... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) December’s data will give us the last “clean” view of inflation before price volatility around Chinese New Year obscures the picture. They are likely to show that consumer price inflation is rising... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
