Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway’s housing boom won’t force rates higher Norway is in the midst of a long housing boom, but prices are not as over-valued as some valuation measures suggest. Given other downward risks to the economic outlook, we think that interest rates... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) Following a year in which India’s growth weakened, external deficit widened, and sovereign ratings came under pressure, the upcoming budget will be a crucial test of the government’s policy... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices data provide a timely reminder that, even though it is now four years since the Fed first started expanding its balance sheet, there are few signs that inflation is becoming... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The "two-speed" continent The scope for rapid “catch-up” growth, allied with improving levels of governance, point to a relatively upbeat outlook for most of sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade or so. By contrast, a lack... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf overheating fears haven't disappeared Recently announced plans in the Gulf countries to ease fiscal policy to counter the global downturn could lead to renewed fears of overheating in the region. Our core inflation measures suggest that... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should we be worried about inflation expectations? The anchoring of inflation expectations is seen as one of the great successes of the current inflation targeting regime and is enabling the MPC to take a more flexible approach to meeting the target... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Fall in Indian inflation not enough to prompt further rate cuts Wholesale price inflation in India fell more than expected in January, to 6.6%. But with consumer price inflation rising to 10.8% and the current account deficit heading for a record high this year... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation Report highlights squeeze on real pay Today’s figures from the ONS highlight how employees’ real earnings have fallen to levels last seen in 2003. And the Bank of England’s February Inflation Report suggested that the squeeze on... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) The Bank of England has presented another gloomy Inflation Report, showing inflation projected to be stronger over the next couple of years even though the recovery is still expected to be sluggish... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) Inflation held at 2.7% for the fourth month in a row in January and is likely to rise further before falling later this year. Tomorrow’s Inflation Report will paint a nasty picture of weak growth and... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would more flexible inflation-targeting achieve? Mark Carney suggested last Thursday that, rather than changing the monetary framework altogether, introducing more flexibility into the existing inflation-targeting regime is his preferred option. The... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will inflation throw another spanner in the works? The continued strength of inflation, resulting in further falls in households’ real pay, raises the question of whether we can ever look forward to a period when it finally eases and so supports... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Surge in credit causes headache for policymakers Policymakers will pay little attention to last month’s drop in inflation or the acceleration in exports, given the usual volatility around Chinese New Year. But a surge in off-balance-sheet bank... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation: from bad to worse Brazil’s inflation data are going from bad to worse. Headline inflation rose to a 12-month high of 6.2% last month and is likely to remain above 6% for at least the first half of this year. The... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) The usual rollercoaster around Chinese New Year will have caused inflation to fall in January before sending it soaring this month. Once the seasonal volatility has faded, current evidence suggests... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: pick-up in inflation rules out near-term rate cuts Russian inflation picked up to its fastest rate since late 2011 in January, giving the Central Bank a strong argument to withstand pressure from the government to start easing policy in the face of... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
