Japan Economics Weekly Rising wages no guarantee of end to deflation The rise in base wages agreed upon in this year’s spring wage negotiations is far less impressive than some of the headlines suggest and is still consistent with real incomes falling. There is a good... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation in Emerging Asia to remain subdued Inflation in Emerging Asia has fallen back over the past few months and remains low by historical standards. Looking ahead, inflation looks set to remain fairly benign. Currency weakness over the past... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation not as alarming as it appears The sharp rise in regional inflation over the past year is starting to cause concern in some quarters. But a closer look reveals that the increase has been due to a jump in inflation in just two... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb) The drop in consumer confidence in February shows that consumers are increasingly doubtful about the benefits of Abenomics. 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The expansion in the broad money supply ground to a halt in February, and the annual growth rates may well have peaked for now. However, the fundamentals for a further acceleration in bank lending... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Disparity in Nordic inflation rates to be sustained for now February’s consumer prices figures for the Nordic countries revealed a continued disparity between subdued inflation rates in Sweden and Denmark on the one hand and much stronger price pressures in... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Deflation still a bigger concern than inflation The global recovery appears to be strengthening, but we do not expect a generalised pick-up in inflation. In the US, core inflation may rise to 2% or more over the next two years as the economy... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Disparity in Nordic inflation rates to be sustained for now February’s consumer prices figures for the Nordic countries revealed a continued disparity between subdued inflation rates in Sweden and Denmark on the one hand and much stronger price pressures in... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bounce back from weather disruption The unusually severe winter has been playing havoc with the incoming economic data but, once the weather returns to seasonal norms, we expect the US economy to perform strongly this year and in 2015... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Headline shrink in exports is misleading Yesterday's inflation data point to subdued price pressures. Meanwhile, despite the seasonal volatility in the latest trade data, foreign demand and exports remain healthy. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Still on course for steady recovery A combination of severe winter weather in the US, New Year celebrations in China and a planned tax hike in Japan are making it more difficult than usual to assess the strength of the world economy... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay squeeze continuing to ease The squeeze on real earnings is continuing to ease, increasing the chances that 2014 is the first year that real pay rises since the financial crisis. Granted, the headline (three month average of the... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada maintains neutral bias Although the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% today and maintained its neutral bias, we suspect that the emphasis on the recent rebound in inflation in the accompanying statement... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The calm before the storm Recent economic data have mostly been positive, with industrial production and retail sales climbing to multi-year highs, and corporate profitability exceptionally strong. However, investors are... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK has only limited exposure to Ukraine crisis The UK economy should not feel any major adverse effects from the crisis in Ukraine since trade and financial exposures to it and Russia are small. The biggest threat is from higher commodity prices... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
