UK Commercial Property Update Is stagflation the next threat to property values? If growing fears of a sustained rise in inflation proved well founded, this will present another obstacle to a meaningful recovery in commercial property values. But a repeat of the 1970s experience... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB ready to do more if deflation risks rise The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending its exchange rate ceiling. But even at the... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will continue to push back rate hikes The Norges Bank’s decision to leave the policy rate unchanged reflects the dilemma facing the Bank as a strong currency prevents it from hiking rates to stem a housing boom. These countervailing... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Lower inflation may further delay return to fiscal balance Concerns about when governments will meet their budget deficit elimination goals have mostly centred on rosy consensus real GDP growth forecasts. But lower inflation could also result in even longer... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Switch to CPIH could form part of framework changes Two new inflation measures, CPIH and RPIJ, are being introduced this month. A switch in the targeted measure of inflation could be part of any shake-up of the monetary framework, although it is likely... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's industrial recovery remains fragile, rate cut likely Better-than-expected industrial production data have provided some cause for market cheer in India. However, a close look at the data underlines how fragile the recovery remains. We continue to expect... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic rebound may already be stalling The weekend’s data releases suggest that China’s economic rebound is faltering sooner than expected, even by relative pessimists such as ourselves. 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico rate cut likely to be a one-off Today’s cut in Mexican interest rates was a surprise, particularly in light of further evidence that the US economy is strengthening. We suspect that it was a one-off and do not think it marks the... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Falling commodity prices to push inflation lower Average inflation in advanced economies was below 2% y/y in January and we expect it to decline further over the course of the year. Global demand should be fairly weak, not least due to the recession... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb. 13) Inflation will have spiked higher last month because of price rises ahead of Chinese New Year, but it should drop back in March. Looking further ahead, inflation is likely to rise but we think the... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation close to peaking Inflation in Russia rose to an 18-month high of 7.3% y/y in February but is now close to peaking. As it falls back over the coming months, interest rates are likely to be cut. Nonetheless, the room... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Five issues to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, starts on Tuesday. Expectations, as usual, are low. This year though, with a new leadership keen to project an energetic image... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Two-year inflation target would be a step too far One of the policy changes that the new Bank of Japan Governor is likely to consider is a further clarification of the 2% inflation target. Mr Kuroda himself has reportedly suggested an explicit... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the further rise in unemployment in January raised the chances of further policy action by the ECB. 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb.) February’s fall in German CPI inflation should ease fears of inflationary pressure in the euro-zone’s largest economy despite the continued fall in unemployment. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set for a modest rebound Emerging market (EM) inflation looks to have found a floor in late 2012 and is set for a modest rebound over the first half of this year. Food inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
