Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer spending was sluggish in February, but the real surge ahead of next month's consumption tax hike will only show up in the March figures. Meanwhile, there are further signs that underlying... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our non-consensus calls At first sight, many of our views now look close to the consensus. However, this is typically because other analysts have swung round to our long-held positions, which have mostly been proved right... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the long-term unemployed ever get back to work? If there is little prospect of getting the long-term unemployed, who account for an unusually large share of the overall jobless rate, back into work then wage growth could accelerate faster than the... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may be on hold until 2016 Although the Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today, the Bank may yet need to push back its first projected interest rate hike from mid-2015 to 2016. 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How will the fall in inflation impact retail property? February’s drop in CPI inflation does nothing to reduce the overhang of vacant retail space or the challenges of meeting consumers’ changing shopping habits. But it does bring the end of the squeeze... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia's consumer sector is picking up After enduring a slump for much of 2013, retail sales in Emerging Asia (ex. China) appear to have turned a corner. Growth has picked up strongly across most countries in the region in recent months... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could US energy exports help Europe? There are still significant hurdles to clear before the US becomes a major energy exporter. Indeed, the US (in contrast to North America as a whole) may never quite achieve full energy independence... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) The further fall in CPI inflation in February took it another step towards the 1% rate which we think it could reach later this year and which would provide additional support to the economic recovery... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Medical inflation is coming back to life A rebound in medical inflation from recent 40-year lows will add to a wider strengthening in price pressures to push core PCE inflation above the Fed’s 2% target next year. This may prompt the Fed to... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebalancing to weigh on euro-zone inflation further Recent data show that the euro-zone labour market is finally starting to strengthen and that labour costs are falling in the periphery relative to the core. But, while some economies are adjusting... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The decline in annual headline inflation to 1.1% in February, from 1.5%, won't concern the Bank of Canada as it mainly reflects base-year effects in transportation and clothing. Meanwhile, the strong... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s battle with deflation goes on The combination of a sluggish economic recovery, very low inflation and a still strong currency will keep the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in very accommodative mode for the foreseeable future. 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis as likely to result in lower as higher oil prices Concerns about potential disruption to Russian energy exports initially caused oil and natural gas prices to rise as the crisis in Ukraine unfolded, and they may yet do so again. But global energy... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weather adds to upside risks to food inflation As a lot of the surge in food prices in February is due to the extreme weather, it is unlikely to be sustained. Nonetheless, the risks to our forecast that food price inflation will climb from 1.4% in... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki softens its stance but rates are still likely to rise In light of the recent drop in inflation, Iceland’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged today and suggested that rate hikes were less probable than they had been in February. However, with... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in CPI inflation to only 1.1% in February, from 1.6%, won’t influence tomorrow’s policy decision by the Fed, as it is solely due to base effects that will be reversed in March. Core inflation... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
