Global Economics Update What are the prospects for global real interest rates? Continued high savings rates in emerging economies and weak investment in advanced economies suggest that real interest rates will remain low for many years. In addition, policy-makers have a strong... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Seasonal volatility in food inflation continues to cause swings in consumer price inflation. However, with broader price pressures subdued and little sign of major policy loosening on the horizon, the... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising wage growth no threat to the inflation outlook The recent acceleration in wage inflation is an encouraging sign, especially considering the excess slack in labour markets and still uncertain economic outlook. For these and other reasons, however... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Productivity cloud should lift in time Figures released last week confirmed that the weakness of productivity growth continues to hang like a cloud of Saharan dust over the medium-term outlook for the economy. Not only has productivity... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Rate hikes still a distant prospect With inflation falling faster and slack in the labour market being used up more slowly than the MPC expected in February’s Inflation Report, the decision to leave Bank Rate on hold at this month’s... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US rebounds but China and Japan slowing The global economy is healing, but the pace of recovery differs markedly between countries. The US is now rebounding from its weather-induced slowdown and the euro-zone is steadily gaining momentum... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling inflation enhances recovery prospects The last month has brought more good news on inflation. CPI inflation eased from 1.9% to 1.7% in February, the lowest rate since October 2009. Meanwhile, past falls in commodity and import prices... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recovery gradually building momentum The key euro-zone surveys of activity and sentiment continued to pick up in Q1, particularly in the periphery, suggesting that GDP growth in the region as a whole may have been a bit stronger than in... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation heading in the wrong direction (again) Inflation in Brazil appears to be accelerating once again, and may have been as high as 6% y/y last month. A combination of droughts and a weaker exchange rate are contributing to the problem. But the... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus: one year on Although the Cypriot economy has proven surprisingly resilient over the past year, its future still looks bleak. In common with a number of euro-zone economies, Cyprus is at risk of a prolonged period... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to stay on hold for a while yet The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 2.5% today, amid signs that the non-mining economy continues to improve. Policy loosening remains off the agenda for now, but we still think... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) Japan's consumers continue to face severe headwinds as strong employment gains remain insufficient to compensate for falling real wages. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update PCE inflation won't be this low for long The fall in PCE inflation to just 0.9% in February probably marks the low point in this cycle and we suspect that the Fed will be surprised by how fast inflation rebounds over the next 18 months. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s fall in euro-zone consumer price inflation probably partly reflected temporary factors relating to the timing of Easter. But the weakness of inflation suggests that the ECB may need to take... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation still on track for 1% The further fall in CPI inflation in February is unlikely to be the last this year. Past movements in global commodity prices, recent announcements by energy suppliers and the emergence of a... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to drive up EM inflation A spike in global agricultural commodity prices has raised concerns that the current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world could be nearing an end. But the recent increases still leave... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
