Latin America Economics Update Argentina: time to come clean on inflation? Argentina remains on a collision course with the IMF over the accuracy of its consumer price data. The Fund has threatened to impose sanctions if corrective measures are not taken by 29th September... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Final CPI (Apr.) While March’s euro-zone trade data are certainly encouraging, we remain sceptical that the sector can single-handedly drag the euro-zone and, in particular, the peripheral economies out of recession. 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Apr.) The delayed effects of previous falls in commodity prices and signs of a further easing in industrial activity will continue to weigh on pipeline price pressures. Over the next year at least... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) The latest Inflation Report indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has become a bit more optimistic on the growth outlook. This, alongside its continued expectation of a further rise in... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Lower Indian inflation unlikely to result in imminent rate cut The continuing slide in India’s wholesale price inflation will come as a relief to policymakers, but expectations of another near-term rate cut are likely to be disappointed. The RBI will want to see... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Benign inflation outlook supports case for loose policy Weak commodity prices and a faltering global recovery suggest that inflation in advanced economies is likely to remain very low for the foreseeable future. This will support the case for continued... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What can Uruguay do to bring inflation down? Contrary to popular belief, Uruguay’s stubbornly high inflation rate is partly structural in nature and not simply the result of overheated demand. Bringing inflation down permanently will require far... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) The pick-up in headline consumer price inflation in April was driven by a rebound in vegetable prices, which should be short-lived. But headline inflation is still likely to edge higher over the... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation edges to within target range The drop in Brazilian inflation last month was a bit smaller than expected but still sufficient to bring it back within the central bank’s target range. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to fluctuate... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why have we been wrong on inflation? While we think that we’ve done a pretty good job of forecasting the economy recently, we readily admit that our record of forecasting inflation has left a lot to be desired. Given the apparently... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will be forced into a cut by end-2013 The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about rising household debt once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But our expectation for the euro... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr. 13) Consumer price inflation probably picked up last month, due to a rebound in vegetable prices. Further increases lie ahead. 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What next for inflation across the region? Inflation is likely to slow across West Africa in the near term, meaning that interest rate cuts are still a possibility. By contrast, inflation is likely to accelerate in East and South Africa. In... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Can we trust Chile's inflation data? There appears to be some truth to claims that discrepancies in Chile’s consumer price data have lowered inflation artificially. Even so, the overall impact on headline CPI has been relatively small... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Headline PCE inflation to slip below 1% The latest fall in gasoline prices will soon drag headline PCE inflation below 1%. With core PCE inflation set to remain only just above 1.0%, the Fed is likely to become more concerned by the subdued... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) April’s drop in euro-zone inflation and the further rise in unemployment in March have added to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
