Asia Economics Update India’s next government forced to build on sluggish economy As voting in India’s general election draws to a close today, another batch of disappointing data has underlined the economic challenges that will face the new government. 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Low inflation and the FPC should keep rates down The main risks to our view that low inflation will keep interest rates on hold for longer than markets expect stem from the MPC’s increased focus on spare capacity under phase two of its forward... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation to prevent interest rate cuts despite slow growth Rising inflation looks set to force policymakers in most parts of Latin America to keep monetary policy relatively tight despite evidence that the region is entering a new phase of weaker economic... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr 14.) Worries about deflation following the release of today’s price data from China are overdone. Last month's drop in consumer price inflation was due to a sharp fall of vegetable price inflation, which... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery robust but housing market concerns build The last month’s data has provided further evidence that the UK economy is enjoying a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of solid, but not excessive, growth and low inflation. The latest PMI surveys suggest that... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack West outperforming East The US is enjoying a strong rebound after its weather-induced slowdown, the UK has extended its period of rapid growth into Q2 and the recovery in the euro-zone has gained momentum. On the other hand... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update El Niño-related food inflation worries in India premature India's high dependence on rainfall for crop production makes it particularly vulnerable to the dry El Niño weather conditions that many weather forecasters expect this year. Concerns over the... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Deflation to trump Riksbank’s household debt concerns The Riksbank’s report on household indebtedness underscores the magnitude of the problem and the need for it to be addressed. But we continue to think that the Bank will cut interest rates as... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May 14) Headline inflation is likely to have dropped in April but is set to rebound this month, due to swings in food inflation. That said, the broader picture is that price pressures remain low and stable... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflation in the Gulf may be reaching a bottom A drop in food inflation has caused inflationary pressures to ease across much of the Gulf over the past twelve months. But inflation may now be bottoming out. Food inflation is set to pick-up again... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are inflation expectations still well anchored? Although survey measures of short-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply, medium-term forecasts have so far remained well anchored. However, with deflationary pressures building, a de... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s inflation figures might have eased some of the immediate pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support, but they did not alter the big picture of growing deflation... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank surprises markets with a rate hike An acceleration in inflation, in part due to the recent sharp drop in the ruble, caused Russia’s central bank to hike interest rates by 50bp today. Looking ahead, with inflation likely to remain high... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation concerns resurface in Brazil Inflation has started to accelerate once again in Brazil, casting doubt over signals from the central bank that the hike in interest rates earlier this month could be the last in the current... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: Mar.; Tokyo: Apr.) While the consumption tax hike at the beginning of April lifted inflation in the capital region close to 3%, price pressure should abate in coming months as import prices have moderated. 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
