Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone turning Japanese? There is a real and growing danger that the euro-zone enters a Japanese-style bout of flat or falling prices. But even a prolonged period of low positive inflation would seriously hamper the... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) May’s fall in euro-zone inflation and the still high level of unemployment in April will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support in order to address the growing risks of... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts unlikely any time soon in India The central bank left interest rates unchanged today, as expected. Looking ahead, rate cuts are unlikely any time soon despite subpar economic growth as consumer price inflation remains high. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack GDP growth slowed in Q1, likely to remain sluggish First quarter GDP data released over the past month suggest that the region’s economy slowed further at the start of this year, with growth dipping to just 2.0% y/y in Q1, down from 2.2% y/y in Q4... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: Apr.; Tokyo: May), Unemployment & Industrial Production (Apr.) Neither the surge in inflation nor the slowdown in industrial production in April came as a surprise, and firms expect output to stabilise in coming months while inflation should moderate. 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses testing their pricing power Our view that core inflation will increase faster than the Fed expects is based on expectations that both rent of shelter and medical inflation will continue to rise and that an acceleration in wage... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The expected increase in headline inflation, to 2.0% in April from 1.5% in March, mainly reflects higher energy price inflation which should prove to be temporary. In contrast, core inflation only... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Price pressures are strengthening There is now enough evidence to conclude that price pressures are strengthening. The increase in CPI inflation to 2.0% in April left it in line with the Fed’s target and core inflation rose to an... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Impact of currency weakness on inflation has been muted The sharp fall in many emerging market (EM) currencies over the past year has not led to the big EM-wide inflation shock that some were predicting. Looking ahead, we expect inflation across the... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki on hold, but rates to rise later this year Iceland’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 6% at its meeting today, despite raising its medium-term forecasts for GDP growth. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will have to raise... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) While CPI inflation rose in April, this largely reflected a temporary boost from the later timing of Easter this year. Underlying price pressures have remained subdued and we continue to think that... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Apr.) A widespread pick up in price pressures is now underway, which we think will result in both the CPI and PCE measures of core inflation rising above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the fall in... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Inflation Report stems rise in market interest rates Speculation that the Bank of England’s May Inflation Report would show that the Monetary Policy Committee is preparing to raise interest rates proved to be unfounded, prompting a significant fall back... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s wholesale inflation eases, but RBI unlikely to budge India’s wholesale price inflation dipped unexpectedly last month, but this is unlikely to persuade the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to abandon its hawkish stance on monetary policy any time soon. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Despite a small rise in purchasing intentions, consumer confidence remained at very weak levels last month. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market may be too quick to price in Russia rate cuts The recent rebound in the ruble has led the market to price in interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) over the coming months. We think this is premature. Leaving aside the fact that... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
