China Economics Update Rebound remains elusive The key message from China’s May data is that there is no clear evidence of an economic rebound getting underway. Most of the commentary has focused on the impact on exports of more stringent controls... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: time to re-visit our forecasts? Two developments over the past week make this an ideal opportunity to revisit our forecasts for Brazil. On the one hand, weak Q1 GDP data support our long-held view that the economic recovery will... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia is still no role model for the euro-zone periphery Today’s convergence report by the EC, which gave the green light to Latvia to join the euro-zone in 2014, is likely to lead to further suggestions that Latvia serves as a role model of “internal... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Further dip in core inflation won't prevent trimming of QE3 Core inflation is unlikely to fall to a level that will spark concerns about deflation and prevent the Fed from slowing the pace of its monthly asset purchases later this year. This is mainly because... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation was probably little changed in May, but it is likely to pick up over the rest of the year as pork prices look to have bottomed out. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: May's rise in inflation to postpone rate cuts The sharp increase in Russian inflation in May means that interest rates are likely to be left on hold when Russian central bankers meet next week. However, inflation continues to be driven by food... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Edging out of deflation Japan’s inflation rates look set to turn positive soon. Admittedly, nationwide inflation was still firmly negative on a year-on-year basis in April. But the more timely data for the Tokyo CPI in May... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to remain low in Emerging Asia Inflation has fallen sharply across most of Asia over the past few months, giving central banks scope to cut interest rates. This Weekly explains why inflation is likely to remain low over the next... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May 13) & Unemployment (Apr. 13) April’s rise in unemployment and the fact inflation remained well below target in May will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery now being held back by fiscal tightening The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland won’t unfreeze capital flows anytime soon Five years since they were implemented, Iceland still relies on ‘temporary’ capital controls to support its currency. And they are likely to remain in place for some time yet despite the new... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by April's inflation figures April’s sharp fall in CPI inflation led some to quickly conclude that this would be enough on its own to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) into action. But a closer look at the figures... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation outlook benign As the distortions surrounding Chinese New Year have fallen out of the data, the underlying picture across Emerging Markets is one of weak price pressures. Looking ahead, there are few signs that... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) April’s drop in inflation has provided some welcome, albeit temporary, relief to households’ budgets. While CPI inflation still looks set to climb in the coming months, we continue to expect it to... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) The official core inflation figure, which declined to a slightly lower than expected 1.1% in April from 1.4% in the previous month, might slip below its target range as economic growth disappoints... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Further falls in core inflation may make some Fed officials concerned about the possibility of very low inflation, or even deflation. This could mean we are jumping the gun a bit by expecting the Fed... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
