UK Economics Weekly Fading price pressures bolster case for stimulus The list of indicators signalling that the recovery is gaining momentum continued to get longer last week. However, the recent news on the inflation outlook – which has perhaps gone relatively... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up in June. It is likely to continue rising in coming months but not by enough to cause alarm, given the state of the economy and the likelihood that credit... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy decelerates in second quarter After being propelled by a rebound in energy exports earlier this year, economic growth appears to have decelerated heading into the second quarter. Moderate export growth, cautious business... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & Unemployment (May) The latest euro-zone inflation and labour market figures brought a slight note of caution after the recent improvement in some of the region’s activity indicators. 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slower Q2 GDP growth won't change the Fed's plans Last week brought a plethora of economic data which, on balance, indicated that second-quarter growth could be a little weaker than previously expected. We now estimate a modest 1.5% gain in real GDP... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) With the official core inflation measure unchanged at a worryingly low 1.1% in May, the output gap would appear to be larger than the Bank of Canada is willing to admit. If, as we expect, economic... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank rate cut still a possibility The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about financial stability once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But the Bank once again pushed back... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency sell-off unlikely to push EM inflation up Emerging Market (EM) inflation edged down last month and looks likely to remain subdued, in spite of the recent sell-off in EM currencies. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Thanks to some unfavourable base effects, the annual rate of headline CPI inflation rebounded to 1.4% in May, from 1.1%, even though prices increased by only 0.1% m/m last month specifically... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) May’s rise in inflation confirmed that April’s fall was primarily the result of some temporary factors. That said, the peak is hopefully not too far away now. 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher unit labour costs are a false alarm The rise in the annual growth rate of unit labour costs has more to do with declining labour productivity, rather than any acceleration in the growth rate of labour compensation. Looking ahead, we... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (May) The recent weakness of the global economy explains why both industrial activity and core producer price pressures are still subdued. Producers have had little choice but to reflect the previous sharp... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's inflation eases further, but RBI should remain on hold Today’s further fall in India's wholesale price inflation will come as a relief to policymakers. While the odds of a rate cut have now risen, we still think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will opt to... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation low and heading lower Average inflation in advanced economies fell to only 1.3% in April, its lowest rate since late 2009. Moreover, recent commodity price movements suggest that it will fall further during the coming... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay's revamped inflation strategy still looks flawed Changes to Uruguay’s monetary policy regime, including a shift towards monetarism, are unlikely to be a panacea for the country’s inflation problems. Without tighter economic policy and efforts to... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
