Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation likely to remain subdued Saudi inflation has eased over the course of this year, in spite of fairly robust domestic demand. And looking ahead we think price pressures are unlikely to become a major cause for concern. 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s latest data underline stagflation problem India’s latest data releases underline the challenges faced by the country and its new central bank governor. Today’s inflation data show that wholesale price inflation accelerated and consumer price... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low wage cost pressures point to muted inflation The latest slowdown in hourly earnings provides further evidence that underlying inflation is likely to remain close to the lower bound of the Bank of Canada's target range of 1% to 3%. This supports... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rates to stay on hold for three years (probably) The MPC took a bold step with its forward guidance on interest rates last week, although the various “knockouts” left some wondering whether it created more confusion than it cleared up. Indeed, the... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic demand is building momentum The latest signs that economic growth is gathering momentum are especially encouraging as they imply that a broad-based improvement in domestic demand may be underway. A continuation of the housing... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: naira devaluation on the cards Our forecasts for a fall in oil prices, coupled with a relatively high rate of domestic inflation, suggest that pressure on the Nigerian naira is likely to build over the next year or so. We think... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns ease in Brazil and Mexico July’s data will help to allay inflation concerns in Latin America’s two largest economies – Brazil and Mexico. Inflation fell back to within target range in both countries and looks set to remain... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's sluggish export 'led' recovery Canada's export growth slowed to around 2.0% annualised in the second quarter, from just over 6.0% in the first quarter, which would seem to refute hopes of an export-led pick-up in economic growth... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Aug.) The MPC’s new “forward guidance” supports our view that interest rates are unlikely to rise until 2016 or even 2017, even if the recovery keeps strengthening. 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery entering a slower phase Japan’s economy likely continued to grow at a solid pace in the second quarter of the year, even though the recent wide divergence between various measures of consumer spending raises question marks... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul 13.) Continued increases in pork and vegetable prices look likely to have driven consumer price inflation higher in July. Further rises probably lie ahead. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia‘s growth likely to stay stuck at around 6% Data released today showed that the pace of economic growth in Indonesia eased slightly in Q2. Higher inflation and tighter monetary policy will weigh on the economy over the next year, and we are... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment (Jun.) The latest news on euro-zone unemployment and inflation injected a slight note of caution after the recent run of better news from the region. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China suffering from deflation? If China has dropped into deflation, as many now claim, one implication is that stimulus would succeed in driving a sustainable economic rebound. But evidence of deflation is weak, at best. This is... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The first positive inflation numbers in a year largely reflect the slump in the yen. Excluding food and energy, much of which is imported, Japanese inflation is still negative and should remain so for... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling inflation will benefit some more than others While all households have faced elevated inflation in recent years, the experience has not been uniform. However, differences in inflation rates are likely to be narrower over the next few years than... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
