US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The softer tone of June’s consumer price figures does little to change our view that core inflation will rise faster than the Fed expects. There is still plenty of evidence that the decline in spare... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but arange of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in headline inflation in June, which is largely due to higher food prices, is unlikely to worry the Bank of Canada. Although most measures of underlying inflation also nudged higher... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes interest rates as inflation looks set to rise sharply The Egyptian central bank’s surprise decision to hike interest rates today appears to have been in anticipation of a sharp rise in inflation over the coming months. This follows the government’s... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates on hold until after elections Policymakers at the Brazilian central bank (BCB) left interest rates unchanged at 11.0% last night and we do not foresee any rate hikes until after October’s presidential election. But with high... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: solid but unspectacular outlook for retailers Amid the recent sharp contractions in output from South Africa’s manufacturing and mining sectors, the better-than-expected performance from the retail sector comes as welcome news. But given that... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is retailers’ pricing power starting to strengthen? The sharp rise in core inflation in June reported by today’s official consumer prices figures contrastswith timelier survey evidence suggesting that discounting on the high street has been... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) While consumer price inflation rose quite sharply in June, there remain compellingreasons to expect it to ease further over the second half of 2014. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still likely to extend QQE despite upbeat inflation forecasts It came as no surprise that the BoJ left policy settings unchanged today and presented upbeat inflation forecasts, but we still think more easing will be announced in October. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Can the economy withstand higher interest rates? The recovery should maintain its strong paceeven though interest rates look set to risefrom the record low level soon. The MonetaryPolicy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to beunder pressure from inflation... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slowing Indian inflation brings rate cuts back onto table Inflation in India appears finally to be edging in the right direction, making it increasingly likely that the Reserve Bank (RBI) will cut interest rates sooner than most currently anticipate. 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Too soon to declare victory on inflation Japanese GDP surely contracted in the second quarter in the wake of April’s consumption tax hike, but the latest survey evidence suggests that a recovery is already underway. In the meantime the Bank... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting back to normal Global growth is likely to accelerate a bit during the coming two years while inflation and interest rates should generally remain very low. The US and UK are set for a period of fairly rapid growth... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) & Consumer Confidence (Jun.) Machinery orders were far weaker than expected in May. But some pullback was always on the cards in Q2 and the latest figures shouldn't derail hopes that shrinking spare capacity will underpin renewed... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Core inflation will continue to rise The recent rise in core inflation is not just “noise” as Janet Yellen suggested and instead a large partof it is linked to a decline in the amount of spare capacity in a number of different sectors... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch - Election remains Dilma's to lose The latest opinion polls suggest that October’s election remains President Rousseff’s to lose. But although support for her has edged up in the latest polls, following a sharp fall earlier this year... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
