Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) Wage growth slowed in July and is likely to ease further in coming months as bonus season ends. Unless regular earnings pick up markedly, households’ purchasing power will therefore become further... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Split vote on QE to re-emerge The long-awaited introduction of forward guidance has probably not had quite the impact the MPC was hoping for. We think that some members will vote to resume quantitative easing (QE) this month... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & CPI (Aug.)/ Unemployment (Jul 13.) August’s EC survey added to evidence of a moderate recovery in the euro-zone, but July’s unemployment figures confirm that this is not yet boosting the labour market. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s industrial production and labour market data show that the recovery should continue in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the ongoing rise in consumer price inflation is still largely a reflection... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How vulnerable is Asia to capital outflows? Financial markets in Asia have continued to suffer this week but we continue to believe that the region will weather the storm. Vulnerabilities are highest in India. Elsewhere though, even a large... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) July's subdued inflation figures are consistent with an economy growing below potential, which will only reinforce the Bank of Canada's reluctance to raise rates anytime soon. With growth expected to... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness unlikely to cause EM inflation to rise The sell-off in emerging market (EM) currencies this month is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM-wide inflation. Indeed, looking ahead, we think the outlook for EM inflation is fairly benign. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak rand to push South African inflation higher South African inflation breached the upper bound of the SARB’s target range in July, and the effects of a weak rand means it is likely to accelerate a little further in the coming months. This will... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Residential investment growth set to slow We expect GDP growth to accelerate over the next few quarters as the Federal fiscal tightening begins to ease although, at the same time, it looks like the economic recovery will receive less support... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Stable outlook for inflation leaves central banks with a free hand The continued high level of spare capacity and absence of big commodity price movements suggest that inflation in advanced economies is likely to remain low and stable in the coming months. This... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul.) The fading of the downward pressure on core inflation and the fall in initial jobless claims to a six-year low mean that the odds on the Fed beginning to taper QE3 next month have shortened further. 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation likely to remain subdued Saudi inflation has eased over the course of this year, in spite of fairly robust domestic demand. And looking ahead we think price pressures are unlikely to become a major cause for concern. 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s latest data underline stagflation problem India’s latest data releases underline the challenges faced by the country and its new central bank governor. Today’s inflation data show that wholesale price inflation accelerated and consumer price... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low wage cost pressures point to muted inflation The latest slowdown in hourly earnings provides further evidence that underlying inflation is likely to remain close to the lower bound of the Bank of Canada's target range of 1% to 3%. This supports... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rates to stay on hold for three years (probably) The MPC took a bold step with its forward guidance on interest rates last week, although the various “knockouts” left some wondering whether it created more confusion than it cleared up. Indeed, the... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
