Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have further to run The tightening cycles that began in Ghana and South Africa earlier this year continued in July and, in both cases, we think that further interest rate hikes are likely before the end of 2014. Ghana’s... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment (Jun.) July’s flash euro-zone consumer prices data underlined the continued weaknessof price pressures in the currency union and supported our view that the ECB hasmore work to do to tackle the risk of... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook North Africa getting back on its feet Three years on from the “Arab Spring” uprisings, the tide is turning in favour of the economies of North Africa. Admittedly, there are still many challenges, not least reining in large twin current... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Property price worries prompt rate hikes The central banks of New Zealand, the Philippines and Malaysia all tightened monetary policy last month amid signs that policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned that loose monetary policy is... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Interest rates heading in opposite directions The Russian central bank caused a surprise earlier this month by hiking its one-week repo rate in a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows ahead of a fresh sanctions imposed by the US and EU. This... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the anti-corruption campaign mean for the economy? China’s anti-corruption campaign has claimed its biggest scalp to date with today’s formal announcement of an investigation into former Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang. Over the past 18 months... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Signs of recovery in North Africa Following a difficult few years, the latest data have provided further evidence that things are improving in North Africa. It looks like growth in both Tunisia and Egypt accelerated over the first... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) While the renewed improvement in small business confidence in July lifted the index well above its long-term average, the survey still points to sluggish industrial output. 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation likely to peak before end of this year The recent pick-up in inflation has led some people to question the Bank of Canada's neutral stance on interest rates, but we think these concerns are misplaced. The recent increase in headline... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Russia rate hike a response to geopolitics not inflation Russia’s central bank justified its surprise decision to hike interest rates this morning on stubbornly high inflation, but it’s pretty clear that this is a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina teeters on the brink of another default With talks between Buenos Aires and holdout bondholders seemingly having stalled, it appears increasingly likely that Argentina will be prevented from making an interest payment that is due on... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: Jun.; Tokyo: Jul.) The dip in nationwide inflation in June and the second consecutive fall in the capital region in July suggest that the impact of the sales tax hike has started to fade. We expect core inflation excl... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in agricultural prices to help keep EM inflation muted Inflation across the EM world remains relatively low in aggregate terms, even if it is still worryingly high in a handful of countries. Looking ahead, with global food prices falling, and underlying... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African inflation to remain above target until 2015 South African inflation remained stable in June, but is probably set to rise in the near term, and is unlikely to fall back within the SARB’s target range until early 2015. This should be enough to... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First signs that Brazil inflation may be close to peaking Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation in Brazil is likely to breach the upper bound of its target range for July as a whole but, with the pace of monthly price rises now slowing... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
