Canada Economics Weekly Capacity constraints won't threaten higher inflation for years In addition to downgrading its economic outlook last week and postponing when it expects the economy to return to full capacity until late 2015, the Bank of Canada also lowered its estimate of... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What's behind the slowdown in jobs growth? A satisfactory explanation for the easing in jobs growth is hard to find, but a fading of the fiscal drag and a further pick up in overseas demand means it probably won’t be sustained for long. We... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone still on track for a grinding recovery Although the Bank of Spain’s Q3 GDP estimate suggested that Spain may have exited its two-year recession, the fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in October highlighted that the region’s economic... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Threat to recovery from energy prices overplayed With last week’s GDP figures providing further evidence that the economic recovery is becoming entrenched, the recovery should be able to withstand the looming round of energy price hikes. Indeed... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation rose further in September, but the acceleration was largely due to a spike in fresh food prices. While a gradual closing of the output gap and stubbornly high import price inflation... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflation set to stay subdued across most of the region Easing food inflation and a modest dip in core price pressures have caused headline inflation to fall across much of the MENA region over the past few months. We expect inflation to remain benign in... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation likely to remain in check Emerging market (EM) inflation has been fairly stable in recent months. It edged up in September but there is little reason to think that a sharp acceleration is in the offing. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian rates on hold until 2015 As expected, both the Swedish Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank both held their policy ratesunchanged today. Given our below-consensus outlook for both economies, we do not expect eitherto hike rates... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK relatively unaffected by US debt debacle Last week's deal on the US shutdown took the unlikely, but potentially catastrophic, possibility of a US sovereign default off the table. Admittedly, a series of potential US fiscal flashpoints still... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) September's slightly weaker than expected core inflation reading is consistent with the increase in economic slack over the past year. With the Bank of Canada's export-led recovery hopes likely to... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Non-oil economies set for recovery The MENA region’s non-oil economies remain fragile, but a recovery of sorts is likely over the next year. In Egypt, growth will be supported by the government’s Gulf-funded stimulus package, while... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation to stay low even as growth recovers Inflation in Central and South Eastern Europe slowed to a record low in September and is likely to remain subdued throughout 2014, even as growth recovers. This in turn should mean that monetary... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Stagflation here to stay in Venezuela Inflation in Venezuela may now be close to peaking, but it will remain between 30-50% for the foreseeable future - comfortably the highest rate in Latin America. This in turn will remain a major... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery looking stronger Global growth is likely to accelerate gradually next year as activity in the US gathers pace and the euro-zone's fragile recovery continues. Among the emerging economies, growth in China may slow... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) While a touch disappointing, September's inflation figures were not a material blow to hopes that it will fall back to its target. And we still doubt that the inflation knockouts that underpin the MPC... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's outlook is upbeat, despite Q3 contraction Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy contracted in Q3. Nevertheless, the outlook remains upbeat. As such, the MAS saw no reason to change its policy stance at its meeting today. We do not... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
