UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report could raise rate expectations This week’s Bank of England Inflation Report looks likely to include a downward revision to the MPC’s forecast for the unemployment rate, bringing forward the date at which it is expected to hit the 7... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Encouraging start to the fourth quarter Global growth appears to have accelerated in October, as suggested by the rise in business surveys to their highest levels since early 2011. After accelerating in Q3, the US economy seems to have... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling food inflation but core concerns persist in Brazil Slowing food inflation dragged headline inflation in most of Latin America last month, but that masks significant differences in the underlying outlook for inflation within the region. While inflation... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack ECB likely to soften stance but refrain from action The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to a four year low of 0.7% has raised the prospect of a bout of outright deflation in the euro-zone economy. While cost pressures are not as weak as they were when... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish National Bank extends “forward guidance” The Polish National Bank extended its version of “forward guidance” today, stating that interest rates will be left on hold until the second half of next year. We think the existence of significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Easing food inflation to keep EM inflation pressures subdued Falling global food prices should keep food inflation subdued across much of the emerging world over the coming months. Emerging Europe and Latin America in particular are likely to see significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat of deflation? We do not think the world as a whole is heading for a period of deflation. However, peripheral eurozone countries may experience an extended period of falling, or at best stable, prices. We also... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery strengthens and broadens The economic recovery still seems to be gathering speed. The 0.8% quarterly rise in GDP in the third quarter was the strongest expansion seen since Q2 2010. And whereas a year or so ago, the recovery... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov 13.) After rising through the summer, consumer price inflation looks set to be stable over the rest of the year. With policymakers signalling renewed efforts to rein in credit growth, inflation should... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is inflation the only answer for Japan? The public debt problem in Japan has of course been brewing for many years without boiling over into a full-blown crisis. However, adverse demographics could soon cause the government’s finances to... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB fear deflation? There are some good reasons why the ECB should be worried about the prospect of a bout of consumer price deflation in the euro-zone. But it is not clear that it has the firepower to prevent it. 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation behind decision to keep Egypt rates on hold The accompanying press release provided little justification as to why, having eased policy at its previoustwo meetings, the Egyptian central bank left interest rates on hold today. We suspect that... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment figures provide another clear signal that the recovery is still very fragile and will increase pressure on the ECB to take further action to support the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & ADP Payrolls (Oct.) The decline in CPI inflation in September and signs of weaker jobs growth in October support the now widespread view that the Fed won’t begin to taper its monthly asset purchases until next year. 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures suggest that consumption growth gained momentum at the end of the third quarter. And the government shutdown is unlikely to have changed the picture too much at the... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
