Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egyptian inflation spikes while economy struggles The surge in Egyptian inflation to 12.9% y/y last month from 10.5% y/y in October took many by surprise. We think that this rise in inflation can largely be pinned on unflattering base effects and the... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q4) & Consumer Confidence (Nov) The Business Outlook Survey shows that companies are sanguine about the impact of the consumption tax hike, but households have lost confidence in Abenomics. 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greek GDP (Q3) & CPI Inflation (Nov.) Q3’s final Greek GDP release revealed that the recession continued to ease. But with deflationary pressures building, Greece’s debt problems are still growing. 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB being complacent about deflation? For now at least, the ECB appears happy to leave its “powerful artillery” in the arsenal due to its fairly sanguine outlook for inflation. But rather than start to rise gently in line with the ECB’s... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation rising, but scope for policy to remain loose Inflation in Emerging Asia has picked up in the past few months, albeit to a rate that is still low by historic standards. While the inflation outlook is not quite as benign as it has been for the... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economic activity picks up further Judging by the latest business surveys, activity in advanced economies has strengthened further. The global manufacturing PMI is now consistent on past form with world GDP growth of as much as 4%... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to raise rates sooner than expected In its latest move to rein in subsidy spending, the Malaysian government this week announced that it will hike electricity tariffs in 2014. Further subsidy cuts, particularly on the fuel front, are... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) The acceleration in consumer price inflation that started in early summer looks near to an end. With policymakers focussing on reining in credit, and few signs of underlying price pressures, we expect... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates on hold until at least mid-2015 The weakening Norwegian economy prompted the Norges Bank to push back its tightening cycle today. With the Bank revising down its economic forecasts closer to our own, we agree with its new projection... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak growth & strong euro keep pressure on ECB Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation easing despite stronger recovery CPI inflation fell sharply from 2.7% to 2.2% in October and it looks likely to fall below the 2% target soon. Past falls in global agricultural commodity prices suggest that food price inflation will... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Currency depreciation will prevent deflation The recent softening in underlying inflation, which has been partly driven by the widening output gap, has triggered speculation that Canada faces the risk of a deflation developing, particularly if... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest news on euro-zone inflation and unemployment will do little to relieve the pressure on the ECB to take more action to support the fragile economic recovery and head off a potentially... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production (Oct.), Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Despite a slower-than-expected rise in industrial production in October, the outlook for the sector remains buoyant. Meanwhile, there are signs that domestic inflationary pressure is picking up even... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines economy in good shape before Typhoon Haiyan Figures released today show that the Philippines economy was in good shape before Typhoon Haiyan hit the country at the start of the month. In the short-term, growth is likely to slow, but the economy... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to pause before signalling policy easing Following the downgrading of its economic outlook and dropped tightening bias, the recent economic data have been just about strong enough to allow the Bank of Canada to stand pat at next week's... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
