Global Economics Update Could US energy exports help Europe? There are still significant hurdles to clear before the US becomes a major energy exporter. Indeed, the US (in contrast to North America as a whole) may never quite achieve full energy independence... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) The further fall in CPI inflation in February took it another step towards the 1% rate which we think it could reach later this year and which would provide additional support to the economic recovery... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Medical inflation is coming back to life A rebound in medical inflation from recent 40-year lows will add to a wider strengthening in price pressures to push core PCE inflation above the Fed’s 2% target next year. This may prompt the Fed to... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebalancing to weigh on euro-zone inflation further Recent data show that the euro-zone labour market is finally starting to strengthen and that labour costs are falling in the periphery relative to the core. But, while some economies are adjusting... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The decline in annual headline inflation to 1.1% in February, from 1.5%, won't concern the Bank of Canada as it mainly reflects base-year effects in transportation and clothing. Meanwhile, the strong... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s battle with deflation goes on The combination of a sluggish economic recovery, very low inflation and a still strong currency will keep the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in very accommodative mode for the foreseeable future. 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis as likely to result in lower as higher oil prices Concerns about potential disruption to Russian energy exports initially caused oil and natural gas prices to rise as the crisis in Ukraine unfolded, and they may yet do so again. But global energy... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weather adds to upside risks to food inflation As a lot of the surge in food prices in February is due to the extreme weather, it is unlikely to be sustained. Nonetheless, the risks to our forecast that food price inflation will climb from 1.4% in... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki softens its stance but rates are still likely to rise In light of the recent drop in inflation, Iceland’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged today and suggested that rate hikes were less probable than they had been in February. However, with... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in CPI inflation to only 1.1% in February, from 1.6%, won’t influence tomorrow’s policy decision by the Fed, as it is solely due to base effects that will be reversed in March. Core inflation... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Rising wages no guarantee of end to deflation The rise in base wages agreed upon in this year’s spring wage negotiations is far less impressive than some of the headlines suggest and is still consistent with real incomes falling. There is a good... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation in Emerging Asia to remain subdued Inflation in Emerging Asia has fallen back over the past few months and remains low by historical standards. Looking ahead, inflation looks set to remain fairly benign. Currency weakness over the past... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation not as alarming as it appears The sharp rise in regional inflation over the past year is starting to cause concern in some quarters. But a closer look reveals that the increase has been due to a jump in inflation in just two... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb) The drop in consumer confidence in February shows that consumers are increasingly doubtful about the benefits of Abenomics. 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The expansion in the broad money supply ground to a halt in February, and the annual growth rates may well have peaked for now. However, the fundamentals for a further acceleration in bank lending... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
