Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec. 15) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint as consumer recovery slows While the euro-zone economy ended last year with some momentum, expectations of a further acceleration in growth in 2016 will be disappointed. The boost to consumer spending from the decline in oil... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China holds the key to regional recovery Turmoil in China’s financial markets has fuelled concerns that its real economy is also on the brink of a crisis, but we expect continued policy support to drive a recovery over the coming months... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although France’s headline inflation rate edged up in December, the big picture is that price pressures in the euro-zone’s second-largest economy remain very weak. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Macri makes impressive start Mauricio Macri has made a strong start to his term as president of Argentina, tackling some of the country’s biggest macroeconomic distortions in his first month in office. There’s work still to do –... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Final CPI (Dec.) The fall in Russian inflation in December to 12.9% y/y provided the first clear sign that the impact of the 2014 ruble crisis has started to unwind. And we think that inflation is likely to decline... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) India’s consumer price inflation accelerated in December. While this doesn’t put the RBI’s inflation target for January 2016 under threat, it does highlight the difficult task the RBI faces in meeting... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Dec.) The weak Czech inflation figure for December, of just 0.1% y/y, reinforces our view that the National Bank will extend its commitment to keeping policy loose. We expect the MPC use the next few policy... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) While the modest improvement in consumer confidence in December is welcome, policymakers at the Bank of Japan should be concerned about the continued decline in household inflation expectations. 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crisis or recovery: what next for emerging economies? Many parts of the emerging world are facing a tough year in 2016. But the outlook is not as uniformly bleak as many assume and some important emerging economies could spring positive surprises. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A challenging year ahead 2016 won’t be an easy year for the UK economy, given the renewed fiscal squeeze and probable EU referendum in particular. Nonetheless, we expect it to weather these clouds relatively well and... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) China’s economy is beset with a host of problems, but inflation isn’t one. Consumer price inflation remains high enough to keep concerns about deflation at bay but low enough to give policymakers... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the Bank of Canada preparing another surprise rate cut? While the majority of investors expect another interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada by the middle of this year, most of them don’t realise just how weak the economy is right now and the urgency... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the US economy heading for a recession? The latest incoming monthly data suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to between 1.0% and 1.5% annualised. Added to the widening in corporate credit spreads, the renewed weakness in stock... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the disappointing news keep on coming? Last year ended with some fairly downbeat news on public borrowing and economic growth. But has the news flow since then been any more encouraging? So far the answer is not particularly. The start of... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation in December, to a 12-year high of 10.7% y/y, now means that anything less than a 50bp rate hike at this month’s COPOM meeting is likely to see financial markets... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
