Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales surprise, but outlook still grim November’s surprisingly buoyant retail sales figures provide a rare piece of good news for South Africa’s struggling economy. But we expect that rising inflation and tightening monetary policy will... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The fall in CPI inflation to just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, from 0.4% in the third quarter, could prove to be a game-changer for the RBNZ as it leaves the economy uncomfortably close to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stable despite market slump Sentiment towards emerging markets has worsened since the start of the year amid mounting worries about the outlook in a number of key economies. Nevertheless, the latest data provide no evidence of a... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jan.) January’s German ZEW survey confirmed that recent turbulence in global financial markets and the soft tone of the domestic hard data have dented investor sentiment. 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s consumer prices release confirmed that deflation is in the rear-view mirror, but there aren’t yet any signs which will worry the MPC. 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan data confirm economy is in meltdown Venezuela’s central bank has released economic data for the first time since 2014 and the figures are predictably horrific. With oil prices now languishing below $30pb, and the country’s political... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Lower energy prices will delay rebound in inflation Our key theme for this year, that the two big deflationary shocks of 2015 - the slump in energy prices and the surge in the dollar - will fade, leaving rising domestic price pressures to generate a... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Nov.) The strong rise in Peruvian economic activity in November gives the first clear sign that the economy picked-up in the final quarter of last year. As such, it looks like GDP probably grew by around 3... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Lower oil prices won’t reverse inflation’s return December’s consumer prices figures should confirm that the UK’s brief period of deflation is over, by showing the second consecutive month of positive CPI inflation. What’s more, the recent further... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the impact of falling oil prices As India is one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, the continued slide in global oil prices should ensure that the improvement in the current account position is sustained. Domestically, the... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold for now, but doves will win in the end After disappointing markets in December, we expect the ECB to indicate at its forthcoming meeting that the door is still open to bolder policy support. The Bank is unlikely to alter policy for now... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower inflation outlook to keep the MPC on hold for a while The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% today, for the 82nd month in a row, was unsurprising given the recent fall-back in the oil price and renewed market concerns about the health... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia was unchanged at 2.3% y/y in December, but the recent wave of subsidy cuts means that it is likely to edge higher over the coming months. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cut in Bangladesh likely to be a one-off Bangladesh Bank has today cut its policy rates for the first time since 2013 to give the economy a further lift. Although the central bank has become more confident of meeting its inflation target... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Wholesale price inflation picked up in December and, looking ahead, we think that it will rise further, returning to positive territory early this year. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
