UK Economics Chart Pack Falling inflation enhances recovery prospects The last month has brought more good news on inflation. CPI inflation eased from 1.9% to 1.7% in February, the lowest rate since October 2009. Meanwhile, past falls in commodity and import prices... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recovery gradually building momentum The key euro-zone surveys of activity and sentiment continued to pick up in Q1, particularly in the periphery, suggesting that GDP growth in the region as a whole may have been a bit stronger than in... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation heading in the wrong direction (again) Inflation in Brazil appears to be accelerating once again, and may have been as high as 6% y/y last month. A combination of droughts and a weaker exchange rate are contributing to the problem. But the... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus: one year on Although the Cypriot economy has proven surprisingly resilient over the past year, its future still looks bleak. In common with a number of euro-zone economies, Cyprus is at risk of a prolonged period... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to stay on hold for a while yet The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 2.5% today, amid signs that the non-mining economy continues to improve. Policy loosening remains off the agenda for now, but we still think... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) Japan's consumers continue to face severe headwinds as strong employment gains remain insufficient to compensate for falling real wages. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update PCE inflation won't be this low for long The fall in PCE inflation to just 0.9% in February probably marks the low point in this cycle and we suspect that the Fed will be surprised by how fast inflation rebounds over the next 18 months. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s fall in euro-zone consumer price inflation probably partly reflected temporary factors relating to the timing of Easter. But the weakness of inflation suggests that the ECB may need to take... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation still on track for 1% The further fall in CPI inflation in February is unlikely to be the last this year. Past movements in global commodity prices, recent announcements by energy suppliers and the emergence of a... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to drive up EM inflation A spike in global agricultural commodity prices has raised concerns that the current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world could be nearing an end. But the recent increases still leave... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer spending was sluggish in February, but the real surge ahead of next month's consumption tax hike will only show up in the March figures. Meanwhile, there are further signs that underlying... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our non-consensus calls At first sight, many of our views now look close to the consensus. However, this is typically because other analysts have swung round to our long-held positions, which have mostly been proved right... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the long-term unemployed ever get back to work? If there is little prospect of getting the long-term unemployed, who account for an unusually large share of the overall jobless rate, back into work then wage growth could accelerate faster than the... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may be on hold until 2016 Although the Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today, the Bank may yet need to push back its first projected interest rate hike from mid-2015 to 2016. 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How will the fall in inflation impact retail property? February’s drop in CPI inflation does nothing to reduce the overhang of vacant retail space or the challenges of meeting consumers’ changing shopping habits. But it does bring the end of the squeeze... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia's consumer sector is picking up After enduring a slump for much of 2013, retail sales in Emerging Asia (ex. China) appear to have turned a corner. Growth has picked up strongly across most countries in the region in recent months... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
