Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry still struggling Industrial production (IP) growth in the emerging world is very weak. In aggregate terms, EM output grew by just 2.0% y/y in August – the slowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis. The... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African consumer spending to continue weakening The South African Reserve Bank is set to hike interest rates over the coming months to shore up the currency and counter above-target inflation, but this will hit household spending. Based on a few... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low inflation outlook strengthens case for MPC caution With inflation easing, the housing market cooling and the euro-zone’s recovery fading, the majority of MPC members voting to keep Bank Rate on hold is unlikely to have been whittled down at this month... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish government too upbeat on growth and inflation Turkey’s recently-published 2015-17 Medium-Term Programme shows that the government remains overly-optimistic on the economy’s growth prospects and still hasn’t acknowledged the strength of underlying... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish Bank Governor strikes a dovish note Following a larger-than-expected interest rate cut in Poland earlier today, Governor Belkaunderstandably maintained an extremely dovish stance at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference. At the... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest rise in Brazilian inflation gives ammunition to Neves The latest rise in Brazilian inflation, which has pushed it further above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range, will give further ammunition to Aécio Neves ahead of his run-off against... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady, if unspectacular, growth ahead Most economies in Emerging Asia are likely to see growth accelerate gradually over the next year, helped by a combination of stronger demand from advanced economies and relatively loose monetary... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weaker currencies add to need for tighter monetary policy African currencies have not been immune to the recent sell-off in EM financial markets, raising concern in some countries about rising inflation. In this Watch, we examine which economies are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ not yet ready to expand stimulus With policy settings again left unchanged, the key development at today’s Bank of Japan meeting was policymakers’ acknowledgement of the recent sluggishness of the economy. However, we still think... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone ever escape abnormality? Don’t be fooled by the apparent normalisation of the euro-zone’s financial markets. Conditions in the currency union’s economy are still a very long way from normal. 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery aggravates existing imbalances While the economic recovery seems to have broadly maintained its strong pace in the third quarter, the latest national accounts contained signs that the recovery has exacerbated some of the economy’s... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Could Q3 be as good as it gets? Although global growth should be a little faster in the second half of the year than the first, it is unlikely to continue rising in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the US looks set for a sustained... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch How important is the exchange rate for inflation? The latest data still show a sluggish recovery, but recent BoJ communication remains upbeat. The upcoming meeting is therefore unlikely to result in any changes to policy or tone. Instead, we think... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economic weakness spreads to Germany The latest survey indicators seem to have confirmed that the euro-zone’s feeble recovery has already passed its peak. September’s fall in the composite PMI, for example, left it consistent with a... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Investors face up to “new norm” for EM growth Investors have started to face up to the prospect that previous hopes of a significant rebound in EM growth are likely to be disappointed. But while the new normal for EM growth is going to be much... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA PMI points to recovery, but manufacturing still sluggish The pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September provides further evidence that the sector has come out of its recent slump. But even so, activity remains extremely weak and the prospects... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
