US Data Response Consumer Prices & Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The 0.7% m/m decline in consumer prices in January was entirely due to a massive 18.7% m/m fall in gasoline prices. As a result, the annual rate of inflation fell to -0.1%, which is technically a... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, but will rise within 12 months The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that currency weakness and the return of inflationary pressures will prompt the bank to raise... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How negative can interest rates go? Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates into negative territory this month, following in the footsteps of the Danish and Swiss central banks and the ECB. Although central bankers are instinctively... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer surveys are consistent with slow and steady growth. But even if this can be sustained as the Greek crisis continues, it will do little to erode the spare capacity... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation pressures easing across the MENA region The past month has brought further evidence that inflation is slowing across the MENA region. In Saudi Arabia, inflation now stands at its lowest rate in more than eight years, while price pressures... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian consumers feel the squeeze The latest data have given mixed signals on the performance of Emerging Europe’s economies. The encouraging news is that growth in much of Central Europe (particularly Poland and Hungary) seems to be... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Deflation to have limited impact on pay round With inflation set to turn negative during the busiest time of the year for pay bargaining, the MPC will be on red alert for any signs that deflation is having a knock-on effect on pay deals... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Today's PMI suggests that economic momentum has improved slightly and that downward pressure on inflation is easing. That said, it also points to weaker external demand on the back of rapid trade... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen positions the Fed for a June rate hike Chair Janet Yellen's prepared congressional testimony, which struck a more upbeat tone on labour market conditions and included a detailed discussion of how the forward guidance will be amended... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Feb.) A further sharp rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of February has tipped the balance towards another 50bp increase in the Selic interest rate at next month’s central bank meeting, rather... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) Despite a modest rebound in February, small business confidence remains weak. 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam CPI (Feb.) Consumer price inflation in Vietnam slowed again in February, and looks set to remain very low for the coming year. With the economy still overwhelmingly dependent on exports for growth, another rate... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: case for interest rate cuts building Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but a slightly more dovish tone in the accompanying statement, combined with the announcement of budget cuts over the weekend... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Retail sales recovery to remain robust Although retail sales volumes were a whopping 5.4% higher in January than a year ago, this does not have the hallmarks of an unsustainable boom. The average price of retail purchases has fallen by... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids deflation... at least for now This week we expect to learn on Thursday that headline CPI inflation fell to 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, principally because of the slump in energy prices last month. With crude oil and retail... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
