Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Feb.) Consumer price inflation in the Philippines picked up slightly in February, but remains comfortably towards the lower end of the central bank’s (BSP) target range. Although we expect inflation to rise... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia unlikely to join the rate-cutting club Despite a recent drop in inflation, the Malaysian central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today. While several central banks in the region have eased monetary policy this year, we... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Misery index on track for 50-year low Households are considerably better off than they were just a year or two ago. Indeed, the so-called “misery index” – a sum of the prevailing inflation and unemployment rates – has halved over the last... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.5% y/y, was probably temporary and we think the headline rate should edge down over the coming months. But the bigger picture is that Turkish price... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s continued fall in euro-zone consumer prices and the still-high rate of unemployment in January confirm that the ECB faces an uphill battle against the threat of deflation. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to cope with commodity collapse The plunge in the prices of the key commodity exports of both Australia and New Zealand late last year will soon filter through into weaker domestic activity, resulting in GDP growth this year slowing... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update 10 key calls on Australia and New Zealand Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in ourAustralia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients today), but in this note we highlight ten... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress The unveiling of a new, lower GDP growth target at the National People’s Congress would be an encouraging sign that the government is facing up to the continued slowdown in China’s sustainable rate of... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, Italian & Spanish Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s energy-related increases in inflation in Germany, Spain and Italy did little to reduce the threat of a prolonged bout of deflation in future. Headline rates remain either extremely low or... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling energy prices push many EMs into deflation Concerns over deflation have started to resurface across the emerging world. But the latest deceleration in inflation has been driven by last year’s plunge in oil prices. Accordingly, we continue to... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Delay to Nigeria’s election puts naira under pressure The delay to Nigeria’s election and the controversy over the alleged misappropriation of oil revenues have cast the spotlight on the country’s weak governance. After the decision to delay the election... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Unemployment, Household Spending & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Industrial output surged last month and the job market remains tight despite a jump in the unemployment rate. However, consumer spending is sluggish and the ongoing slowdown in inflation increases the... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Brief deflation won't hold up the Fed Although the CPI inflation rate dipped into negative territory in January, this bout of deflation is likely to be brief and it won't prevent the Fed from beginning to raise its policy rate from near... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain a hard line on Greece The ECB is unlikely to announce any new policies after its meeting next week as it prepares to implement the quantitative easing programme unveiled in January. President Draghi will claim that QE is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The decline in the headline CPI inflation rate to only 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, was entirely due gasoline prices, which fell by 26.9% over the past year. Excluding food, energy and other volatile... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
