US Economics Weekly Higher energy prices to lift headline inflation Our central theme that the Fed will be forced to raise rates much more aggressively than markets expect continues to unfold. The two deflationary shocks of 2015 – the surge in the dollar and the slump... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) The rise in the core inflation rate in April, to 2.2% from 2.1%, was slightly stronger than expected but still appears due to the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. As the weakness in the... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May) The rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 9.6% y/y, from 9.3% y/y over April as a whole, was disappointing given that it followed declines in the previous three months. Today... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka keeps rates on hold, but hikes likely soon The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today held its deposit and lending rates at 6.5% and 8.0%,respectively, for the third straight month. However, we think it is only a matter of time before it... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks pause for breath Emerging market policymakers have been in tightening mode over the past year, but this reversed last month. Our EM interest rate diffusion index shows that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia opens door to further easing Malaysia and Indonesia both left their main policy rates on hold at scheduled meetings today. But while Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) gave little sign that it was about to shift monetary policy... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) Today’s Q1 GDP data for the Philippines showed that Rodrigo Duterte, the country’s president elect, will be handed an economy that is in very good health. The foundations are in place for growth to... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Ind. Prod (Apr.) The 0.4% m/m increase in consumer prices was the biggest gain since February 2013 and reflects primarily a strong rebound in energy prices. More generally, the rebound in commodity prices we’ve seen... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has the threat of deflation disappeared? Fears of deflation have eased since the beginning of the year as oil prices have rebounded and global growth has stabilised. However, the appreciation of the euro and yen and continued weakness of... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) April’s fall in CPI inflation merely reflects erratic Easter effects unwinding and is unlikely to be the start of a renewed downward trend. But the big picture is that price pressures in the economy... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose sharply in April and returned to positive territory for the first time in 18 months. This reinforces our view that there is little scope for further monetary... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) & Consumer Confidence (May) The retail sales and consumer confidence reports show that recent claims of the demise of the US consumer have been greatly exaggerated. Thanks to a massive 0.9% m/m gain in control sales in April and... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More survey evidence of bleak growth prospects The dangerous wildfires that broke out in Alberta earlier this month haven’t changed the dismal outlook for economic growth this year. As the increasing amount of survey evidence indicates, the much... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Evolution of inflation expectations in Australia is now key The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to 1.75% and revise down its inflation forecasts is still causing waves, but what happens next largely depends on the evolution of... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes a gloomy note on Brexit risks In its latest Inflation Report, the MPC sounded a stark warning about the potential adverse effects on the economy of a Brexit, but nonetheless continued to indicate that, if the UK votes to stay in... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) Indian consumer price inflation rose above the Reserve Bank’s target for March 2017 last month, supporting our view that the scope for further loosening is very limited. 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
