Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts still likely in Chile Interest rates in Chile were cut by 25bp to 3.00% last night and, although the accompanying statement suggests that we may be nearing the end of the easing cycle, we expect further cuts over the next... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Working nine to nine? Rapid growth in the UK’s workforce in spite of both demographic and international trends has been crucial to sustaining the economic recovery and preventing it from stoking inflation. Looking ahead... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates left unchanged as recovery trumps high inflation The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today came as little surprise. Inflation remains high but policymakers are undoubtedly wary of tightening monetary policy due to... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) & Final CPI (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus in August reflected a drop in importsrelated to weak domestic demand rather than a rise in exports. It still looks like theeconomy failed to grow in Q3 and... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.), Empire State (Oct.) & PPI (Sep.) The weak tone of the latest retail sales, manufacturing and PPI data is the first real sign that the stronger dollar and the global slowdown are taking their toll on the domestic economy. But it’s... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Although today's inflation data suggest that broad price pressures remain subdued, we aren't yet concerned about deflation risks. Rising pork prices mean the fall in food inflation last month is... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s sharp fall in consumer price inflation supports those members of the Monetary Policy Committee arguing that there is still no hurry to raise interest rates. 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can US and euro-zone inflation really diverge? It would be unusual for inflation pressures to be building in some advanced economies and falling in others. Nonetheless, this is exactly what we expect to happen in the next year or two, as US... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Stalled recovery adds to pressure on policymakers The European economic recovery has weakened, with the euro-zone now at risk of recession and countries outside the region feeling the effects on their exports. While the euro-zone’s peripheral... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Dramatic fall in Indian inflation boosts calls for rate cuts Indian consumer price inflation fell to its slowest pace on record in September. With the latest data also pointing to continued weakness in the industrial sector, we remain of the view that interest... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Underlying inflation pressures building in parts of the Gulf In aggregate, inflation in the Gulf countries has remained stable over the past few months, helped by easing food inflation. But there are signs that core price pressures are starting to build... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Inflation still likely to moderate despite recent yen weakness The impact of the recent weakening of the yen on consumer prices will be dampened by lower crude oil prices. The upshot is that CPI inflation is still likely to moderate towards year-end rather than... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the FTSE’s fall signalling a slowdown? On the face of it, the sharp decline in the FTSE 100 to its lowest level since last October appears to be a bad portent regarding the sustainability of the UK economy’s recovery. However, the FTSE’s... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Inflation looks to have remained low in September, with weak commodity prices and a cooling housing market helping to keep broad price pressures subdued. We see slightly higher inflation ahead, due to... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the weaker yen doing more harm than good? The weaker yen hasn’t resulted in the hoped-for improvement in export competitiveness. It has boosted corporate profits, but the pass-through to business investment has been weaker than usual... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The continued decline in consumer confidence in September adds to the impression from last month’s business sentiment surveys that the recovery remains sluggish. 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
