Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) While the strong rebound in consumer sentiment in February is welcome, there are increasing signs that household inflation expectations are declining. 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) Sweden’s headline inflation rate turned positive in February for the first time in eight months. But deflationary pressures have not disappeared altogether and we continue to think that the Riksbank... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb. 15) Sweden’s headline inflation rate turned positive in February for the first time in eight months. But deflationary pressures have not disappeared altogether and we continue to think that the Riksbank... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) Egyptian inflation edged up to 10.6% y/y in February and is likely to stay close to 10% for the next few months. Further interest rate cuts are unlikely until the impact of last year’s energy price... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s seasonal pick-up in food inflation will likely prove short-lived and we still expect inflation to fall back below 1% in coming months. Nonetheless, today's inflation data suggest that... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February and there is still little evidence to suggest that a weaker peso is feeding through to higher inflation. Inflation should remain close to the... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Start of ECB QE won’t herald strong recovery As the ECB’s quantitative easing programme starts today, it already seems to be having a more positive impact than we had envisaged. But here we explain why we maintain our view that the policy will... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jan.) & Czech CPI (Feb.) The 2.2% y/y fall in Turkish industrial production in January was distorted a little by base effects, but even so the data highlight the extent to which the economy is struggling. The consensus view... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Can the RBI meet its new inflation targets? Forthcoming consumer price inflation data for February should show that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains on course to meet its target for the start of 2016, which has now been formalised under... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Bucking the global trend…for now The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is odds on to buck the recent global trend by leaving its cash rate on hold at 3.5% in the announcement scheduled for Thursday 12th March. But if we are right in... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) Brazilian inflation surged to its highest annual rate in a decade last month and the relentless increase, coupled with the recent sell-off in the real, bolsters the case for interest rate hikes to... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update February bounce in inflation likely to be short-lived After a bounce in February, inflation in China looks likely to drift lower in coming months – but remain positive, we think – before rebounding in the second half of the year. 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation continued to accelerate in February, rising to its fastest pace, at 16.7% y/y, in more than a decade. We think inflation is close to peaking, but the big picture is that it’s likely... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC waiting to be sure deflation will not linger The MPC’s decision to stand pat today – marking the 6 th anniversary of interest rates at their record low of 0.5% – looks set to repeated over the next few months while inflation hovers near zero... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers beginning to spend their oil windfall Household spending has picked up sharply in response to the collapse in oil prices. In January, the growth rate of underlying retail sales in advanced economies reached its highest level since 2006... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
