UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail rental values finally show signs of life All-property rental values grew by 0.4%m/m in September, the second-biggest monthly increase since mid-2007. Industrial and office sector rental values continued their recovery, but perhaps the most... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low EM inflation set to persist Inflation eased further in September across most of the emerging world, in aggregate reaching its lowest rate in nearly five years. Falling commodity prices and weak underlying price pressures mean... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Falling commodity prices not enough to pull SA’s inflation down Recent movements in commodity prices are unlikely to be enough to lower inflation in South Africa substantially. Indeed, exchange rate weakness and upcoming energy price hikes will put further upward... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in jobless claims illustrates labour market strength There are still areas of the labour market where conditions could be better, particularly the elevated number of part-time workers looking for full-time work and the lack of a meaningful acceleration... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank quashes hopes for looser policy The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left on hold, is likely to quash hopes that have been growing in some quarters for looser policy in response to... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in the Philippines, but further hikes likely The decision to leave interest rates in the Philippines on hold at 4.0% today reflects a recent easing of inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, with credit still growing at an unsustainable pace and... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (October) The rebound in the flash manufacturing PMI in October indicates that industrial production should stop falling soon. 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drag from lower gasoline prices is only just beginning and will eventually result in CPI inflation falling from 1.7% in September to just 1.2% in December. Core inflation will remain higher, but... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf: Fall in oil prices unlikely to trigger another “lost decade” Concerns that the recent fall in oil prices could lead to another “lost decade” for the Gulf, similar to the 1980s, are probably overdone. The region’s large accumulated savings mean that most... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Tighter policy in Ghana to lead to further growth slowdown While Ghana’s authorities continue discussions with the IMF about a possible programme, the macroeconomic situation in the country appears to be getting worse. We suspect that the eventual tightening... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed shouldn’t respond to lower inflation expectations Since the recent fall in US inflation expectations is solely being driven by the decline in oil prices, it won’t prevent the Fed from ending QE3 or raising interest rates next year. 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why fuel subsidy reform matters for India and Indonesia Indian consumer price inflation fell to its slowest pace on record in September. With the latest data also pointing to continued weakness in the industrial sector, we remain of the view that interest... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) Recent market events, most notably the slump in world oil prices, will keep core inflation in Canada well within the policy target range over the coming months. Accordingly, we expect the Bank of... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Real wages to provide timely support to the recovery Last week saw global financial markets return to panic mode, as concerns about the faltering euro-zone economy, heightened geopolitical risks, the spread of the Ebola virus and falling oil prices came... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
