Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank tries to claw back lost credibility The surprise decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise interest rates now, rather than waiting for Dilma Rousseff’s new government to take shape, is an early sign that tackling inflation could be... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bank lending under pressure from new deposit rules New rules requiring banks to ensure that deposits at the end of each month deviate by no more than 3% from the monthly average are a new headwind for China’s economy. The rules are designed to prevent... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions set to remain loose The likely end of the Fed’s asset purchases under QE3 does little to change the bigger picture that global monetary conditions remain very loose. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Revising down our core inflation forecasts The indirect impact on core inflation from the recent fall in energy prices is one more reason why coreinflation won’t increase as fast as we previously expected. Nonetheless, we still think that both... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price slump raises deflation danger The sharp fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will keep inflation across Central and South Eastern Europe extremely weak and could push several economies deeper into deflation... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack No sign of improvement Economic growth in Emerging Asia is showing no sign of improvement. Our GDP tracker is pointing to growth of around 4.5% in the third quarter, which is roughly unchanged from the previous quarter and... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC shrugs off weak inflation and activity data The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to keep interest rates on hold was surprisingly upbeat. It largely shrugged off the drop in inflation in September... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank cuts rates to zero but deflation threat persists Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its fight against deflation, cutting its main policy rate to a record low of 0% and pushing back the date at which it first expects to raise rates. We think that... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Oct.) The third decline in small business confidence in a row suggests that the economy is not quite as strong as the jump in the flash manufacturing PMI in October indicated. 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank cuts rates to zero but deflation threat persists Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its fight against deflation, cutting its main policy rate to a record low of 0% and pushing back the date at which it first expects to raise rates. We think that... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower oil price adds to risks Alongside the potential for a sharp correction in the domestic housing market, the recent slump in crude oil prices represents a second risk to the Canadian economic outlook. We expect GDP growth to... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower energy prices another reason to ease more Just a few months ago, a sizeable number of analysts were expecting the Bank of Japan to provide more stimulus at the upcoming meeting, but only a few are still holding on to that view. We expect that... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Still waiting for that elusive economic rebound The recent run of weak data confirms that the economy fared even worse in August after barely growing in July. Encouragingly, leading indicators point to a spectacular rebound in September, though it... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling commodity prices to keep Asian inflation low Declines in commodity prices have helped push down inflation across Emerging Asia in recent months. We expect inflation to remain low over the next year, which will leave room for central banks to... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much damage would a delay in the tax hike do? Recent comments by PM Abe suggest that next year’s scheduled hike in the sales tax might be delayed. Concerns about the economic impact of a further tax hike are understandable given the weakness of... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
