Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery The downturn in Latin America’s economy should bottom out over the second half of this year and economic growth should return as we move into 2017. The recession in the region’s largest economy –... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central bankers going soft on their inflation targets? It is often claimed that central bankers are less committed to their inflation targets than they were before the global financial crisis, but a closer look suggests that there has not been a dramatic... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian inflation remained unchanged at 7.3% y/y in May for the third consecutive month, but it looks like it is on course to edge up over the coming months. As a result, we think that the central... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in underlying inflation should rattle BoJ Japan’s economy is holding up reasonably well despite the recent strengthening of the yen. Meanwhile, the decision to delay the sales tax hike that had been scheduled for next April has brightened the... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Goldilocks inflation rare bright spot for policymakers For China’s policymakers worrying about overcapacity, misplaced credit and pressures on the currency, the benign inflation outlook is a rare bright spot. We think consumer price inflation in China was... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Consumption growth likely to slow The recent pick-up in consumer spending growth suggests at first glance that households are in a position to carry the economy once again this year. But closer examination of the underlying trends in... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation persists Euro-zone consumer price inflation remained in negative territory in May for the second consecutive month and the eighth month overall in the last 18. Fading negative energy effects mean that... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth to strengthen as Russia exits recession Growth in Emerging Europe is set to strengthen over the next few quarters, helped in part by the fact that the drag from Russia will ease as it exits recession. However, while the acute stage of... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) Households’ expectations for the next few months were little changed in May but the delay of the sales tax hike should lift spirits in coming months. 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why interest rates may have to fall to 1% The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to follow May’s 0.25% interest rate cut to 1.75% with another reduction at the meeting on Tuesday 7th June. But we still believe that rates will be reduced to... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Further cuts to repo rate unlikely The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its repo rate by 150bp since the start of last year, but we believe that it will now keep rates on hold not just at next week’s policy meeting but for the rest... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide HPI & Mortgage Lending (May/Apr) April’s drop in mortgage approvals was an expected response to the recent changes in stamp duty for additional homes and it gives us little new information. But the further easing in the Nationwide... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (May) The PMI readings for May were underwhelming. Although they suggest that activity held up reasonably well last month, they also offer few signs of improvement. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
