Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The small rise in today’s Tankan index for all industries suggests that economic activity remained sluggish last quarter. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers drive the recovery The euro-zone economic recovery has gained some pace thanks to a pick-up in consumer spending growth. The annual growth rate of retail sales volumes rose to near a ten-year high in January, due partly... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Why aren’t banks lending more? Recent cuts to policy interest rates should eventually help to boost bank lending in India, the weakness of which has been a significant cause of the economic slowdown over the past few years. But... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.) The latest data on euro-zone inflation and unemployment did not lift the threat of a prolonged period of deflation in the currency union. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rise in the GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence to a 12-year high in March adds to other signs suggesting that households are poised to spend their windfall from lower energy prices. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s rise in German HICP inflation will add to hopes that recent price declines were a temporary phenomenon that will have positive effects on the economy. But with core inflation still very low... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) March’s EC business and consumer sentiment indicators supported the evidence from other surveys that euro-zone economic activity picked up slightly in the first quarter. But growth still looks likely... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BRICs drive pick-up in EM inflation A pick-up in inflation in all four of BRIC economies pushed aggregate EM inflation to an eight-month high last month. However, the bigger picture remains that in most EMs inflation is both low and... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus “Abenomics” needs a fresh boost Japan’s economic recovery was dealt a severe blow by last year’s sales tax hike, and we think that the immediate outlook for growth is more gloomy than most believe. With inflation well below the 2%... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone consumers look ready to start spending Buoyed by falling unemployment, rising equity prices and a boost to their spending power from a lower oil price, euro-zone consumers have become increasingly confident, with the EC’s measure of... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Zero inflation doesn’t boost case for rate cut For a country that has spent much of its recent history battling high inflation, last week’s data showing that inflation hit zero in February was something of a watershed moment. However, we don’t... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Shifting sands: why the outlook for the BRICs is starting to diverge The prospects for the four largest emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are starting to diverge. The outlook for India is improving and, despite a recent run of poor data, we think... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation of Thailand’s credit bubble has further to run Although credit growth in Thailand has cooled over the past few years, the process of deflating the country’s credit bubble is still far from over. Given this, the Bank of Thailand’s decision earlier... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Unemployment, Household Spending & Consumer Prices (Feb.) While the labour market remains tight, inflation is moving further away from the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. We continue to expect the Bank to step up the pace of easing at the end of next month. 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency sell-off puts paid to further policy loosening Currencies in Latin America have regained some ground over the past week, but have still typically fallen by between 10-20% against the dollar over the past six months. The risk that the slide in... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigerian politics take centre stage All eyes are focused on Nigeria’s election on 28th March, which will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
