US Economics Update Fed running out of reasons not to hike rates With the unemployment rate now within a whisker of most estimates of the natural rate and more comprehensive measures of wage growth showing a clear acceleration, we believe that the markets are too... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.) Today’s inflation and industrial output data were both encouraging, but policymakers will focus mainly on evidence of fading price pressures. Given this, an early start to the RBI’s policy loosening... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) November’s Bank of England Inflation Report gave another strong indication that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects to keep interest rates on hold for a number of months yet and then increase... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower production estimates won’t stop grain prices falling Global corn, wheat and soybeans remain on course for record harvests this year. Combined with high stocks, lower energy costs and a stronger US dollar, we continue to expect crop prices to fall... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Oct.) The rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in October will do little to dispel fears that the country is succumbing to a damaging bout of deflation and will maintain pressure on the Riksbank to... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in October and remains barely higher than immediately after the sales tax hike. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Oct. 14) The rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in October will do little to dispel fears that the country is succumbing to a damaging bout of deflation and will maintain pressure on the Riksbank to... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The increase in Egyptian inflation last month should not ring too many alarm bells. In fact, it can be almost entirely explained by a sharp rise in education inflation ahead of the new academic year. 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & Inflation (Oct.) Over-invoicing continues to distort both China's exports and its imports, but the underlying picture is of healthy foreign demand and subdued demand at home. Meanwhile, the inflation data have... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Falling commodity prices to keep inflation subdued The recent sharp falls in local food and global oil prices are likely to have kept both consumer and wholesale price inflation subdued in October. This would strengthen our view that the RBI is likely... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What are China’s copper demand indicators saying? Concerns about demand, notably from China, have been one of the key factors cited by commentators to justify recent copper price falls. However, not all indicators of demand are flashing red. As such... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report set to reaffirm low rate outlook This week’s Inflation Report should confirm that the majority view on the Monetary Policy Committee remains that the economy is still some months away from justifying higher interest rates. Indeed... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The pick-up in Mexican inflation from 4.2% in September to 4.3% in October probably marks the peak for this cycle. We expect it to edge down over the rest of this year and think it could reach the... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation last month will come as a welcome relief to policymakers but is unlikely to prevent interest rates from rising further over the coming months... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to remain low – but positive Inflation is at a four-year low and looks set to remain lower than we had previously anticipated. But we don’t think deflation is the threat that some believe or that policymakers should respond to... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
