Africa Economics Update Rising inflation, stronger output suggest rate hike in South Africa Figures released today showed that South Africa’s retail sector has remained surprisingly resilient in the face of power shortages, and rising inflation. A string of relatively strong growth figures... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) May’s consumer prices figures showed that deflation lasted for just one month, but the big picture is that inflation is set to remain extremely low during the rest of 2015. 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (May) The sharper-than-expected fall in Polish consumer prices last month reinforces our view that the central bank will be under little pressure to raise interest rates any time soon. The market, which is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf countries weathering the storm, but growth to weaken The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by low oil prices relatively well this year, with foreign exchange reserves having been drawn down to sustain spending. Large savings mean that this... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation edged up in May, but it remains firmly in negative territory and close to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. Importantly, core inflation fell further, providing... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) & PPI (May) The rebound in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to 94.6 in June, from 90.7, was impressive given the surge in gasoline prices over the past few weeks. It appears that the US... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Chancellor’s budget surplus law a step too far? Last week’s announcement by the Chancellor that he intends to pass a law to require all future governments to run a budget surplus “in normal times” engendered more accusations that he is playing... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Oil price effect to unwind, but deflation risks persist Headline inflation looks certain to rebound sharply in most advanced economies during the coming months as the impact of last year’s oil price slump unwinds. Looking further ahead, faster wage growth... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Consumer price inflation edged up in May but not enough to put the Reserve Bank’s inflation target under threat. 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as inflation remains high The Central Bank of Egypt left interest rates unchanged today, but we expect a rate cut later in the year, despite the recent pick-up in inflation. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: UK to exit deflation after just a month May’s inflation figures should show that deflation in the UK lasted for just a month. Admittedly, this would not mean that the risk of a prolonged period of low inflation has suddenly disappeared... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate nudged up in May, the big picture is that it remains very low in spite of the Riksbank’s aggressive policy easing. As such, the central bank will need to do... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged up to 2.1% y/y in May, but price pressures are still subdued. Against the backdrop of slower growth and weak commodity prices, we expect this to remain the case for the... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May. 15) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate nudged up in May, the big picture is that it remains very low in spite of the Riksbank’s aggressive policy easing. As such, the central bank will need to do... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation to 8.5% y/y last month was driven entirely by an increase in food inflation as well as regulated price hikes. Meanwhile, the infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
