Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.2% y/y, means the central bank won’t hold an extraordinary meeting tomorrow to lower interest rates, but this is only likely to... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Big number of small winners > small number of big losers Last week, mixed news on corporate earnings and an unexpected decline in underlying capital goods orders in December renewed fears that recent market moves are somehow a net negative for the US... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s drop in core euro-zone inflation to a record low brought further confirmation that deflationary pressures in the currency union go well beyond the effect of falling oil and energy prices. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ pinning hopes on strong Shunto wage deal A strong rise in base pay in the spring wage negotiations (Shunto) would help convince the Bank of Japan that the current weakness in inflation will prove temporary. A tight labour market and strong... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico on hold but rate cuts still not out of the question Interest rates in Mexico were left unchanged at 3.0% last night and concerns amongst policymakers about the weakness of the peso suggest that cuts are unlikely in the very near-term. For our part, we... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production & Household Spending (Dec.) The labour market continues to tighten, as the economic recovery is picking up speed. However, the continued slowdown in inflation suggests that the Bank of Japan still has more work to do. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is very low inflation the new norm? CPI inflation looks set to turn negative in the next few months. Whilst we expect the UK’s period of deflation to be short and shallow, there are a number of factors which nonetheless should mean that... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s really happening to US inflation expectations? To what extent have recent declines in US bond market-based measures of inflation expectations been driven by changes in expectations for inflation? This is neither a conundrum nor as stupid a... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to tread cautiously as deflation approaches The chances of interest rates rising soon look even slimmer now that a spell of deflation is on the horizon. However, if we are right in expecting deflation to be brief and of the “good” sort, this... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jan.) January’s drop in German HICP inflation well into negative territory highlights the strength of deflationary pressures in even the euro-zone’s strongest economies. While falls in prices should prove... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rate cuts to be exception rather than rule Expectations that the fall in oil prices will trigger a wave of interest rate cuts across Asia are probably wide of the mark. Admittedly, Pakistan, India and Singapore have each loosened monetary... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's central bank takes a more neutral stance The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 3.5% today and suggested there is now far less certainty its next move will be a hike. We are not expecting any changes in 2015 or 2016. 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Government eases pressure on BoJ to expand stimulus The greater tolerance being shown by Japan’s government towards inflation remaining below target simply reflects the fact that the oil price collapse has made hitting the target all but impossible in... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore moves early to counter deflation concerns In an unscheduled decision, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today loosened monetary policy by reducing the slope of its target band for the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). The change... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are falling inflation expectations a worrying omen? Market-based measures of inflation expectations have declined in the major advanced economies over the past few months. However, the economic risks posed by an extended period of very low inflation or... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
