Africa Economics Update South Africa: Tackling unemployment requires structural reform South Africa’s official unemployment rate hit a ten year high of 26.4% in Q1 2015, hammering home the scale of the country’s jobs challenge. Indeed unemployment in the country is more widespread than... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico IGAE (Apr.) & Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) Activity data from Mexico for April suggest that, after a weak Q1, the economy has continued to struggle at the start of Q2. In better news, inflation data to the middle of the month, also released... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) Following the drop in the flash estimate of the manufacturing PMI, the fall in small business confidence in June adds to evidence that the economy slowed sharply in Q2. 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Evidence mounts of a big second-quarter rebound There is now a wide mix of evidence showing that, after a very weak start to the year, the economy is booming again. May is turning out to be a particularly strong month: Existing home sales hit a six... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery Some of India's latest activity data are showing signs of improvement. For example, industrial production has accelerated over the past few months. Measures of expenditure and income tell a similar... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Could Asia be suffering from “bad” deflation after all? A handful of Asian economies have been experiencing deflation for several months now, leading some commentators to suggest that a lasting and damaging period of falling prices lies ahead. However, we... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rates to rise more rapidly than Fed's projections imply Our working assumption is still that the Fed will end up raising the fed funds rate three times this year, taking it to a range of between 0.75% and 1.00% by year-end. But we wouldn't be completely... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) While May's inflation figures are consistent with the Bank of Canada's forecast, the incoming data suggest that the real economy is still underperforming. If economic growth undershoots the Bank's... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun.) & Econ. Act. (Apr.) Brazil’s economic data are going from bad to worse. Figures to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is now running at close to 9% y/y. Meanwhile, the central bank’s Economic Activity... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Deflationary threat from cheaper oil far from over Only a small part of the recent plunge in energy prices has been passed on to consumers in Japan, in large part because firms rather than households are the biggest users of oil and they have not... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The 0.4% m/m increase in May's consumer price index was almost entirely due to a 10.4% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Core prices increased by a more modest 0.1% m/m last month, but the three-month... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay growth back to pre-crisis rates Alongside strong employment growth and virtually zero inflation, households are now enjoying a significant recovery in wage growth. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) While retail sales volumes only edged up in May, the underlying picture looks robust. And with pay growth picking up, inflation set to remain below 1% for another six months and job creation still... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Modest rise in MSP strengthens case for another rate cut The small rise in guaranteed prices for crops produced during the monsoon season that was announced by the government yesterday marks an important step away from populist policymaking of the past... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
