Global Economics Update How are lower oil prices affecting inflation? The drop in global oil prices since mid-2014 will push many advanced economies into deflation, but the trough will vary considerably between economies. And while inflation should rebound rapidly in... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Occupier and investment indicators fall sharply in Moscow A softening of economic growth in many countries across both Emerging Europe and non-euro-zone Western Europe helps to explain the relative lack of action in terms of rental movements in Q4. The big... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Cautious Bank of Japan still set to ease again in late-April Governor Kuroda today expressed the usual confidence about Japan’s economic prospects and the likelihood of price pressures picking up. But with the recent economic data disappointing and inflation... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Price pressures building slowly The Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target still looks out of reach, but recent data do at least include some promising signs that price pressures are picking up. 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rally in coal prices likely to be short-lived The rally in coal prices this year is unlikely to be the start of a sustained turnaround in fortunes for the beleaguered market. Stronger demand from India may continue to support prices over the next... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) CPI inflation reached a record low in January and we think that it is more likely than not that inflation turns negative soon. But with few signs that low inflation is becoming ingrained, the UK’s... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Jan.) The unexpected rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in January will be welcomed by the Riksbank but with prices still falling on an annual basis, we think the central bank will need to cut the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia’s crisis to deepen but contagion to remain limited The deepening downturn in Russia will depress aggregate growth across Emerging Europe this year but the outlook for most countries will be shaped more by developments in the euro-zone than it will by... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack New evidence of PBOC intervention to support renminbi Data for January showed Chinese banks continuing to sell FX to the non-bank sector last month. This has a few implications. First, the fact that banks were net sellers despite a record trade surplus... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Jan. 15) The unexpected rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in January will be welcomed by the Riksbank but with prices still falling on an annual basis, we think the central bank will need to cut the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Wholesale price inflation dropped into negative territory in January to its lowest rate since June 2009. In particular, the sharp fall in core inflation adds to evidence elsewhere of increasing... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we fear deflation in China? The slide in inflation in China, as elsewhere, has been driven primarily by commodity price falls due to increases in global supply. It is unambiguously positive for China’s economy. Evidence that... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What could the Bank of Canada do beyond rate cuts? The Bank of Canada's recent focus on the dangers to the economy of low oil prices may well prompt it to cut interest rates again. At only 0.75% now, however, the scope for additional interest rate... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cut in Bank Rate returns to policy toolkit With CPI inflation on the verge of turning negative, last week’s Inflation Report saw Bank of England Governor Mark Carney discuss his available policy options should deflation show signs of becoming... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jan.) The larger-than-expected drop in Polish inflation in January, to -1.3% y/y, should seal the deal on an interest rate cut at the next MPC meeting on 4 th March. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again The slump in oil prices has dramatically altered the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Following the Bank of Canada's surprise move last month to cut its policy rate to 0.75%, from 1.00%... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
