Global Economics Update Labour market performance after devaluations: lessons for Greece? Real wages have typically fallen sharply after a major currency crisis and devaluation but have then begun recovering within a couple of years. The pace at which they have picked up has varied... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solving Australia’s latest confidence conundrum Some simple but effective analysis proves that pretty much all of the recent rise in Australian business confidence relative to consumer confidence can be explained by the recent weakening in the... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to slow as temporary boosts fade The broader European economy has continued to weather the Greek crisis well, helped by lower oil prices and, in the euro-zone itself, the decline in the euro exchange rate. But these positive forces... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the rest of the world hold the UK back? Although external threats to the UK economy have multiplied this year, we do not think that they are likely to derail the recovery. Indeed, the resilience of the UK’s economic recovery has shocked... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Credit slowdown to weigh on Asian growth After a poor start to 2015, we expect growth in Emerging Asia to pick up in the second half of the year as the benefits of lower oil prices and loose monetary policy filter through to the domestic... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) The continued low level of both headline and core CPI inflation in New Zealand in the second quarter all-but guarantees that the RBNZ will cut interest rates to 3.00% at next week’s policy meeting... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen reiterates that lift-off still likely later this year Fed Chair Janet Yellen's latest comments don't change our view that the Fed is still on track for a September lift-off. Furthermore, we expect rising wage growth and core inflation to trigger a much... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jun.) Polish deflation eased a little in June, but this was entirely the result of smaller falls in food and energy prices than in May. Meanwhile, it looks like core inflation edged down a little. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: interest rate hikes still some way off Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3.00% last night and the more dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our long-held view that rate hikes are still some way off. We do not... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French CPI (Jun.) France’s June inflation data confirmed that price pressures remain very subdued in the euro-zone’s second-largest economy. And the substantial slack in the labour market means that core inflation is... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will have to step up pace of easing before long Despite some small adjustments, the Bank of Japan’s interim forecasts today reveal that policymakers remain upbeat about the outlook. But weak economic activity and the prospect of a prolonged period... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales in June is disappointing but, given the strength of sales in earlier months, it still looks like real consumption increased by a relatively healthy 2.7% annualised... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The seemingly inexorable rise of Nigerian inflation – which reached a 28 month high of 9.2% y/y in June – will add to the pressure on the central bank to raise interes trates later this year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s consumer prices figures showed that the UK is continuing to benefit from a period of very low inflation brought on by lower energy and import prices. There are still no signs that low inflation... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation was broadly unchanged in June, remaining firmly in negative territory and close to its lowest rate since the series began. Importantly, core inflation fell further, pointing... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun. 15) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate below zero in June vindicated the Riksbank’s decision earlier this month to cut its policy rate further and extend its bond-buying programme. But we think... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
