Japan Economics Update New inflation gauges do not alter the outlook for monetary policy The Bank of Japan has started to publish a wider set of inflation measures in its monthly report. With all of them showing inflation well below the 2% target, we think suggestions that this shift... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Heading towards 2% The 0.25% reduction in interest rates, to 3.00% from 3.25%, announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today is the second in a series of cuts that we think could take interest rates all the way... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy being dragged down by investment slump The slump in oil prices has already pushed the Canadian economy into a mild recession and things could yet go from bad to worse. Falling energy investment will hit both production and jobs, which will... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul.) The further rise in Brazil’s inflation in the first half of this month means that another 50bp hike in the Selic interest rate at next week’s COPOM meeting is almost a certainty. But there are signs... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South African inflation came in at a below-consensus 4.7% y/y in June, but inflation remains on an upwards trend. While this surprise result will take some pressure off the Reserve Bank, we still... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The rise in Australia's headline consumer price inflation in the second quarter will not trouble the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), given that it largely reflects a rebound in petrol prices. Instead... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC ends easing cycle, pledges loose policy Having cut its two-week deposit rate by a slightly larger-than-expected 15bp to 1.35% earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that no further rate cuts were likely. But at the same time, the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Too soon to sound the “all clear” on deflation Fears of a prolonged period of falling prices in advanced economies have eased over the past few months as both inflation and inflation expectations have rebounded. Nevertheless, the conditions under... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack June data mixed, but Q2 GDP growth around 2.8% After a strong May, economic activity was more mixed in June. Nevertheless, it was still solid enough to re-affirm our view that the economy rebounded robustly in the second quarter. Even after the... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Oil price shock part II The latest renewed slump in world and domestic crude oil prices is another blow to the outlook for Canada's oil-dependent economy, which has already slipped into a mild recession. With the fallout... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the costs and benefits of a weaker peso The drop in the peso to a record low against the dollar in recent weeks has rekindled concerns about what impact this will have on Mexico’s economy. In practice, however, the economics of currency... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policymakers choke off the recovery? Over the coming months, the economy will have to absorb both a renewed fiscal tightening and the first rise in interest rates since 2007. But the public sector cuts will now be phased in more... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Cautious MPC still likely to wait until well into next year Interest rate expectations and the pound have both risen over the last month as stronger pay figures and signs that the US Fed is just a couple of months away from raising interest rates have... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The slightly bigger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in June doesn't materially reduce the odds of an additional rate cut by the Bank of Canada later this year. Core inflation... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The 0.3 m/m increase in June's consumer price index, which was partly due to a 3.4%m/m increase in gasoline prices, brought the brief period of "deflation" to an end. The annual inflation rate edged... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
