Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Jun.) & Kenya Inflation (Jul.) The surprisingly large improvement in South Africa’s trade balance in June was the result of rising exports, rather than just weak import demand. This is a positive sign for the economy, which has... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Another milestone for the economic recovery Last week’s GDP figures indicated that the economic recovery has passed another milestone, namely that GDP per capita is now back to its pre-crisis levels. Admittedly, it has taken an extremely long... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment (Jun.) Euro-zone inflation was well below target in July and renewed rises in unemployment suggest that disinflationary forces remain strong. 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about currency weakness? Asian currencies have fallen again over the past week, with a number now at multi-year low sagainst the US dollar. With the exception of Malaysia, where US dollar debt is high, currency weakness is... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy to recover only slowly from Q2 slump The June activity and spending data cemented our view that Japan’s economy shrank last quarter.While business surveys point to a rebound in Q3, growth will likely remain too slow to create strong... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rate cuts likely to come onto the agenda The Egyptian central bank kept its benchmark O/N deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% late last night, but with inflation set to fall sharply, rate cuts are likely to come back onto the cards. We have... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The GfK consumer confidence survey softened in July, but remained high by historical standards. This suggests that the consumer recovery still has plenty of momentum and that household spending should... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Conditions to stay loose despite looming Fed hikes Even though the US Fed is likely to begin raising interest rates in September, global monetary conditions are set to remain ultra-loose over the coming years as a number of other central banks ease... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Jun.) Today's data provide some tentative signs that underlying price pressure has started to strengthen again. But with consumer spending falling to the lowest level since last year’s sales tax hike, we... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s mooted new policy rate Comments from Turkish central bank (CBRT) Governor Erdem Basci earlier today that the Bank is planning to move away from using its complex interest rate “corridor” and towards the use of a single... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Hawks to break rank This month’s MPC vote will probably be split for the first time this year. While only a minority will vote for a rate rise, the risk of a hike this year has risen. Indeed, Mark Carney will probably... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three reasons why growth should hold up in coming quarters Sentiment about the economic outlook for China has darkened again, with the equity market debacle casting a shadow. But we see three reasons to be relatively positive about prospects for growth in the... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s inflation data confirmed that price pressures in Germany are very subdued, underlining the need for continued and perhaps increased ECB policy support. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes rates, tightening cycle probably over The decision by Brazil’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) to raise interest rates by another 50bp to 14.25% was largely expected, but the move to signal the end of the tightening cycle in the... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Russia and Brazil EM growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2009 in May. But the aggregate data have been pulled down by problems in Russia and Brazil. In contrast, other parts of the EM world have seen a pick-up in... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q2 est.) & HICP (Jul.) While Spain’s economic recovery gathered more pace in the second quarter, the large amount of spare capacity is still sustaining deflationary pressures in the economy. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
