India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged down in October, but we expect it to resume accelerating over the coming months. The big picture is that there is still little room for further policy loosening. 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Commodity prices shift from headwind to tailwind The recent leap in the prices of the main commodity exports of Australia and New Zealand will boost domestic demand in both economies, but it is unlikely to lead to much faster wage growth and much... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Nigerian inflation accelerated to 18.3% y/y in October, which will put yet more pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy. We expect that the bank will hike its key policy rate from 14... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) The 0.5% q/q rise in GDP last quarter implies that the output gap was the smallest since 2014’s sales tax hike. Combined with the recent weakening of the yen, today’s figures therefore reduce the... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in November suggests that last-minute worries about the presidential election had little bearing on sentiment. With the impact of... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does Trump’s win mean for fiscal policy and the Fed? As it stands now, our working assumption is that Trump and Congress will agree on a fiscal stimulus early next year, nearly all of it tax cuts, worth somewhere between $3trn and $5trn over the next... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Would a US fiscal stimulus help Hammond be bold? We have argued that there are good reasons to think that the economic ramifications for the UK of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election are unlikely to be very large. However, at the margin, his... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rising inflation to trigger rate hikes next year Despite the drop in the sol in recent days and the rising inflation rate, Peru’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.25% once again. Nonetheless, we expect hikes to resume next year and the... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Housing rent to remain a drag on inflation Falling rents have been a persistent drag on inflation in Japan. While condominium prices have surged since the launch of QQE, there is virtually no link between house prices and rents. Instead, rents... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates to stay unchanged through 2017 The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today and, while subdued growth and low inflation mean the BoK will keep monetary policy loose for the foreseeable future, a high level... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep interest rates unchanged for some time yet The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) surprised nobody with its decision to leave its main policy rate on hold earlier today at 3.0%. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain low and growth... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Oct.) In October, the Norges Bank’s favoured measure of inflation was unchanged at a joint 14-month low. We think that it will fall sharply next year, prompting the Bank to cut its key policy rate from 0.5%... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) Egyptian inflation dipped for a second consecutive month in October. But the 45% fall in the pound against the US dollar over the past week, as well as additional fuel subsidy cuts, means inflation is... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Treading water Despite having a sizeable output gap, Japan’s economy has expanded at a pace no stronger than potential this year so slack in the economy has not been reduced. One reason is that consumer spending has... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland set to cut rates We think that the sharp appreciation of the króna over recent months will prompt the Central Bank of Iceland to cut its inflation forecasts next week. As a result, although the Bank has previously... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to stay loose Polish National Bank governor, Adam Glapinski, used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to indicate that interest rates are most likely to remain unchanged over the course of next year. But... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
