Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still likely to ease preemptively next month Despite the recent run of stronger data, the Bank of Japan was no more upbeat on the economic outlook at today’s meeting than before. Consumer price inflation is likely to turn negative soon... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Wholesale price inflation dropped further into negative territory in February to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. This was in part due to falling oil prices, but low core inflation... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Spacecraft QQE needs fresh fuel to reach 2% orbit The economy seems to have picked up speed since the start of the year, and the ongoing spring wage negotiations will likely end with a sizeable increase in base pay. However, inflation has continued... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) & Czech IP & Retail Sales (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected 1.6% y/y drop in Polish consumer prices last month was driven largely by an even steeper fall in petrol prices. Meanwhile, Czech activity data released today show that the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Now is the euro low enough? The drop in the euro to a 12-year low against the US dollar should clearly provide some support to both activity and inflation in the euro-zone. But it would be wrong to think that its effects are... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rupiah weakness is unlikely to revive Indonesia’s economy The weakness of the Indonesian rupiah is unlikely to kick-start a recovery in the country’s non-commodity export sector. For one thing, it has not left Indonesian exporters looking any more... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to bounce back, but remain low Many advanced economies will experience several months of negative headline inflation this year as a result of the plunge in oil prices, but few are at risk of a prolonged or damaging bout of... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) Consumer price inflation picked up in February, having already increased sharply since late 2014. But the rebound has been driven entirely by food prices. Core inflation remains low and flat. The... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to shift from neutral to reverse later this year The Reserve Bank of Australia can’t have its cake and eat it. The only way to ensure that the Australian dollar weakens, which would support the real economy, is to reduce interest rates further, but... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate eased further in February to 2.1% y/y, driven in large part by another drop in food inflation. Against the backdrop of slower growth and weak commodity prices, we expect... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) While the strong rebound in consumer sentiment in February is welcome, there are increasing signs that household inflation expectations are declining. 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) Sweden’s headline inflation rate turned positive in February for the first time in eight months. But deflationary pressures have not disappeared altogether and we continue to think that the Riksbank... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb. 15) Sweden’s headline inflation rate turned positive in February for the first time in eight months. But deflationary pressures have not disappeared altogether and we continue to think that the Riksbank... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) Egyptian inflation edged up to 10.6% y/y in February and is likely to stay close to 10% for the next few months. Further interest rate cuts are unlikely until the impact of last year’s energy price... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s seasonal pick-up in food inflation will likely prove short-lived and we still expect inflation to fall back below 1% in coming months. Nonetheless, today's inflation data suggest that... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February and there is still little evidence to suggest that a weaker peso is feeding through to higher inflation. Inflation should remain close to the... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
