India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The sharp drop in Indian inflation in July was due in large part to favourable base effects, and is therefore unlikely to have much bearing on upcoming policy decisions. The Reserve Bank has stated... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s figures show that Nigerian inflation remained at 9.2% y/y in July, but we still expect that inflation will pick up later in the year. FX restrictions and the eventual weakening of the naira... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jun.) & Hungary CPI (Jul.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in dollar terms in June, but only because imports dropped by more than exports. Moreover, the financing of the deficit remains a source of vulnerability... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports hint at policy-driven pick-up in demand Yesterday's inflation data suggest domestic price pressures remained broadly stablelast month. Meanwhile, although exports were subdued, policy easing appears to have supported commodity import... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Renewed slide in oil prices not (yet) a game-changer The declines in the cost of crude oil since May have revived concerns about global growth and deflation risks. However, the falls mainly reflect positive supply-side developments and are also small... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data to highlight divergence in the region The raft of preliminary second quarter GDP data due to be released this week in Emerging Europe is likely to show that the recession in Russia deepened, but that growth in Central and South Eastern... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation to a 13-month low of 8.4% y/y in July was due toboth lower food inflation and the unwinding of last year’s energy price hikes. Withinflation now back in single... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jul.) The weaker-than-expected 0.5% y/y rise in Czech consumer prices last month may bethe first sign that the recent appreciation of the koruna is starting to drag downinflation. Even so, with the economy... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in Mexican inflation in July to a new record low of 2.7% y/y brought further evidence that the continued depreciation of the peso isn’t fuelling price pressures. With inflation falling... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation last month to a twelve-year high of 9.6% y/y underscores the need for policymakers to keep interest rates high, even if – as they have signalled – the... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the Spanish economy keep its place in the sun? Spain is set to remain the fastest growing of the major euro-zone economies for the next few quarters. But while the economy’s fundamentals have improved, the recent impressive growth rates also rest... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our take on the labour market puzzle While our analysis suggests that it is the surprising leap in the unemployment rate in Australia in July that is sending the false signal and not the surprising strength of employment growth, there... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at policy staying loose for longer The Czech MPC kept its policy interest rate and exchange rate ceiling unchanged earlier today, but the Council dropped its strongest hint yet in the accompanying press release that extremely loose... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth set to recover further Global growth rebounded in the second quarter and the latest business surveys suggest that it has picked up further at the beginning of Q3. Growing fears of a hard landing in China have weighed on... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Decision, Minutes & Inflation Report (Aug.) The ‘Super Thursday’ releases from the MPC suggested that an interest rate rise is still not imminent. The Committee wants to be cautious and wait for price pressures to emerge before pressing the... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
