UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) With inflation hitting zero in February, the UK is on the cusp of deflation. But a brief period of gently falling prices driven by lower energy prices is nothing to be feared – in the UK, at least... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Mar.) The surge in small business confidence in March is likely to prove short lived, as firms predict a renewed weakening in April. 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The second straight drop in the manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength in industrial activity is unlikely to last. 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at the jump in Brazilian inflation We estimate that all of the jump in inflation in Brazil over the past year can be explained by increases in government-regulated prices and a drought-related rise in food costs. Both of these effects... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto pay hikes still too small to lift inflation to 2% The early results from this year’s spring wage negotiations confirm that the tight labour market has boosted wage pressure. However, this year’s overall increase in labour income will likely still... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is there light at the end of the austerity tunnel? In a Budget devoid of significant pre-election giveaways or major revisions to the economic forecasts, the most important changes were to the spending plans. While the Chancellor stuck to his overall... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) While February's headline inflation rate remained at 1.0%, the core inflation rate eased to 2.1%, from 2.2%. These figures by themselves won't sway the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Still on track for negative inflation soon Tuesday’s inflation figures are likely to show the UK taking another step further towards deflation. And the recent rise in the pound will put additional downward pressure on inflation further ahead... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Shunto pay hikes still too small to lift inflation to 2% The early results from this year’s spring wage negotiations confirm that the tight labour market has boosted wage pressure. However, this year’s overall increase in labour income will likely still... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy slowing sharper than headlines suggest Canada's economy continued to lose momentum in the final quarter of last year and the slowdown was only partly due to lower oil prices. Furthermore, the seemingly gradual slowdown in headline GDP... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead A confluence of domestic and external factors will cut Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2015 to its slowest rate this century. Low commodity prices will reduce export earnings and force fiscal... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour market (Jan./Feb.) The latest labour market figures were a bit disappointing, but there was enough good news for the Chancellor to trumpet in his Budget later today. Meanwhile, the latest MPC minutes echoed Governor... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in South African inflation to a four-year low of 3.9% y/y was driven entirely by a further drop in petrol inflation. But core inflation remained strong and the latest fall in the rand is... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Krona’s rise forces Sweden’s Riksbank to ease policy again The Swedish Riksbank unexpectedly loosened monetary policy further today, citing the deflationary risks from the stronger krona, and said it was prepared to do more if needed. With the ECB’s QE likely... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s Sedlabanki holds rates but will hike later this year Iceland’s central bank left its main interest rates on hold today as it waits to judge the outcome of the ongoing wage negotiations. But with labour market tensions growing and the Sedlabanki raising... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policymakers strike sanguine note If there is one key message on the economy to take away from the National People’s Congress it is that the government is aware of downside risks to growth but confident that it has the tools and the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
