Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Chilean inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, coming on the back of the hawkish message in the central bank’s latest Inflation Report, suggests that rate hikes may come sooner than we... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big a deal is the Zohr gas field for Egypt? The recent announcement by Italian energy group Eni that it has discovered a “super giant” gas field off the coast of Egypt has been billed as a game changer for the country. However, as we explain in... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation on the rise Concerns over deflation in China look increasingly misplaced, with consumer priceinflation likely to have hit a one-year high in August and on course to rise further inthe final months of this year. 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Hungary CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish industrial production in July, coming alongside the fall in August’s manufacturing PMI, reinforces our view that GDP growth is likely to weaken in the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Favourable base effects will soon fade Inflation is likely to have edged down in August, due in large part to favourable base effects caused by the spike in food prices a year ago. But these effects are soon likely to fade, which will push... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has internal devaluation worked for Ireland? Since the financial crisis, internal devaluation appears to have provided only a modest boost to Ireland’s trade balance. More important to the economic recovery has been the pick-up in domestic... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we worry about “Corbynomics”? If the polls are anything to go by, left-leaning Jeremy Corbyn will be elected as the next leader of the Labour Party on 12 th of September. This has prompted a heated debate over his economic... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Advanced economies looking resilient We expect developed economies to weather the fallout from China’s August “devaluation” and the subsequent weakness in world equity markets quite well. Activity in the emerging world has slowed further... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The rise in Russian inflation in August, to 15.8% y/y, seems to have been driven by the impact of the fall in the ruble. Against this backdrop, the central bank looks likely to keep its benchmark one... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fragile euro-zone recovery needs more ECB support Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How useful are the BoJ’s alternative inflation gauges? With falls in headline inflation raising questions about its policy approach, the Bank of Japan has recently been highlighting alternative price gauges that show inflation to be rising. These... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi paves way for more QE While the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key policy instruments unchanged today, changes to its bond purchase limits and President Mario Draghi’s dovish signals appeared to pave the way for an... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Resurgence in exports unlikely to last The UK economy fired on all cylinders in Q2, with investment and net trade both providing considerable support to GDP growth. However, exports look set for a relapse soon. 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Heading down to 2% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is all but guaranteed to cut interest rates by 0.25% for the third meeting in a row, from 3.00% to 2.75%, on Thursday 10th September. We wouldn’t completely rule... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India is not the new China The raft of comments and media reports arguing that India is set to become the new engine of global growth following the recent struggles in China were given more fuel earlier this week with the... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank still has more work to do The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
