US Data Response UoM Consumer Conf. (Sep.) & Producer Prices (Aug.) Although the slump in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index to a 12-month low of 85.7 in September, from 91.9, left it well below the consensus forecast at 91.1 it was almost exactly in... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Fed lift-off hit or help the euro-zone? We don’t expect the prospect of higher US interest rates to hit the euro-zone too hard. But the ECB should not take any chances and certainly should not rely on higher US interest rates to lower the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK should weather rising US interest rates well Even if the US Fed holds fire this week, US interest rates will be rising soon – and, in our view, quicker than markets expect. Turning points in UK monetary policy are often close to US ones. But... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker currencies part of the solution, not the problem The economic outlook for Latin America remains pretty gloomy. Weaker growth in China and lower global commodity prices will depress export revenues and, as incomes fall, cause domestic demand to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to hold rates amid balancing act The decision to keep interest rates on hold today at 3.25% reflects the difficult balancing act facing the Malaysian central bank (BNM) as it continues to grapple with the problems caused by slowing... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: “Good” deflation about to return We expect deflation to have returned in August; indeed, inflation is likely to remain below zero for most of the rest of this year. But it is not something to worry about as its main effect will be to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks to our interest rate forecasts While the risks to our forecast that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand will eventually reduce interest rates to new record lows of 1.5% and 2.0% respectively (from 2.0% and 2.75% now) are... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Brazil inflation from 9.6% y/y in July to 9.5% y/y in August should mark the start of a steady decline over the coming months. However, as the minutes from last week’s COPOM meeting (also... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Global risks keep rates on hold again Although the MPC kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% today, it left its options open – saying that recent events had not altered its central view for the UK economy, while conceding an increase in... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt & Saudi Arabia CPI (Aug.) A further drop in Egyptian inflation in August to 7.9% y/y, its lowest rate in more than two years, means that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is looking increasingly likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Emerging Europe Data Response The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q2, to 3.8% y/y, provides some rare good news for the economy. However, we think this is likely to be temporary and higher inflation and tighter monetary... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Producer price deflation deepened last month on the back of a softening in global commodity prices. But the stronger-than-expected pick-up in consumer prices still supports our view that domestic... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Aug.) The fall in Czech inflation in August, to 0.3% y/y, was driven largely by steeper falls in food and energy prices and, as a result, shouldn’t raise too many concerns about the risk of deflation... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug.) While consumer confidence recovered in August, the moderation in households’ price expectations provides another reason for the Bank of Japan to step up the pace of easing. 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
