Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, hike likely later this year Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but the Committee’s increasingly hawkish tone leads us to believe that rate hikes will come in late 2015... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The fall in Russian inflation last month, to 16.4% y/y, suggests that it has passed its peak. As the effects of last year’s fall in the ruble unwind, we expect inflation to ease gradually over the... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Election just one reason to keep rates on hold We doubt that the Monetary Policy Committee would want to change monetary policy so close to a general election, especially when a new government might not even have been formed by the time of this... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update 2% won’t be the floor The cut in interest rates to a new record low of 2.00%, from 2.25%, announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today is unlikely to be the last in this cycle. Our forecast that both GDP growth... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped in April, underpinning the difficulties facing the sector. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining slow, a boom in... 4th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Deflation dangers have not yet lifted April’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation to zero left the latest bout of falling prices shorter, at four months, than that seen back in 2009. But with fundamental forces still bearing down on inflation... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Household Spending, Consumer Prices & Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) While the labour market continues to tighten, inflation remains near zero and wages are barely rising. The BoJ will have to step up the pace of easing before long. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery falters The recovery that was seemingly underway in most parts of Latin America towards the end of last year appears to have faltered in recent months. Indeed, our proprietary GDP Tracker suggests that the... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed yen weakness and Nikkei strength lie ahead We remain positive on the outlook for Japanese equities and negative on the yen, despite the Bank of Japan’s failure to announce additional monetary stimulus today. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenya CPI Inflation (Apr.) Kenyan inflation rose by a stronger-than-expected 7.1% y/y in April, and we believe that weak food production and the depreciation of the shilling will increase inflationary pressures later in the... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) While the recent bout of falling prices in the euro-zone ended in April, the threat of deflation in the currency union has certainly not lifted altogether. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q1 est.) & CPI (April) While Spain’s economic recovery gathered further pace in the first quarter, the large amount of spare capacity left in the economy is sustaining deflationary pressures. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank increases stimulus to battle deflation Sweden’s Riksbank stepped up its fight against deflation by more than doubling the size of its government bond purchase programme and reiterating its willingness to make monetary policy even more... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Steady core inflation indication of a structural EM slowdown Most of the recent slowdown in inflation across the emerging world has been the result of the weakness in food and fuel inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation is barely any lower than a couple of years... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s slightly bigger-than-expected rise in German HICP inflation will reinforce hopes that recent price declines were a temporary phenomenon that will have positive effects on the economy. But with... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Slow out of the blocks Emerging Asia has made a weak start to the year. The headlines have been grabbed by China's slowdown but, a few positive signs from India aside, there has been little cause for cheer around the rest... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
