Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction highlights need for more ECB stimulus The boost to activity and inflation from the euro’s weakening since last summer will soon begin to fade. The ECB might feel that it can wait for tighter monetary policy in the US to drag the euro... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in spending temporarily slows Households are continuing to see substantial increases in their purchasing power. Annual growth in average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) picked up from 2.8% to 3.2% in July, well above that... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays rate hike yet again Despite raising its GDP growth and core inflation forecasts for this year and lowering its unemployment rate forecast for this year, the Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.0% to 0... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia rate cut likely by end of the year With the Fed possibly poised to hike interest rates later in the day, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its key policy rate on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise. Going forward, with inflation... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The 0.1% m/m decline in headline CPI inflation in August was partly due to the renewed decline in gasoline prices, but even core prices increased by only 0.1% m/m, suggesting that underlying inflation... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Aug.) Deflation in Poland eased a little last month as a fall in energy inflation was more than offset by strengthening food inflation. We expect the headline rate to return to positive territory in the... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation set to rebound An increase in headline inflation is now “baked in the cake” for most economies. The effects of last year’s oil price slump are set to drop out of the annual comparison in the coming months and fears... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) UK inflation is still bouncing around zero and is likely to remain there for most of the rest of this year. This period of virtually no inflation is a good thing for the UK, as it is giving a welcome... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The weakness of consumer price inflation in August should be the clinching factor in determining whether or not the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates at its meeting later this month. 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana hikes rates amid currency concerns The surprise 100bp rate hike, to 25.0%, by the Bank of Ghana today appears to have been aimed at shoring up the cedi, particularly in light of the US FOMC meeting later this week. We expect monetary... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation dropped sharply in August to its lowest rate since the series began. The WPI rate may not have as much of a bearing on policymaking as the CPI rate, but the fact that it has... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank has lost sight of the medium term The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) responded to the latest fall in headline inflation by cutting interest rates again over the weekend. The SBP’s aggressive series of rate cuts during the last year... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Additional rate cut still seems like a good bet The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.5% last week was largely as expected in light of the recent news that the real economy returned to growth in June... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
