Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland: An example for Greece to follow? Iceland’s healthy economic recovery after its financial collapse in 2008 highlights the attractions of currency depreciation, if necessary accompanied by capital controls. Such a path has its economic... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki holds, but interest rates to rise soon Although Iceland’s central bank left its main interest rates on hold today, it adopted a much more hawkish tone, signalling that it was likely to start hiking rates as early as next month. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) The drop in consumer price inflation in April was due in large part to a decline in food price pressures, but perhaps the more significant point for the Reserve Bank is that core inflation remains low... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in April suggests that the Riksbank’spolicy easing so far has eradicated the threat that deflation becomes entrenched. Accordingly, further... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Mar.) & Czech CPI (Apr.) Turkey’s higher-than-expected current account deficit figure for March provides further evidence that weak exports have almost entirely offset the benefit to the economy from lower oil prices. And the... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr. 15) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in April suggests that the Riksbank’s policy easing so far has not eradicated the threat that deflation becomes entrenched. Accordingly, further... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Austerity and low inflation likely to keep MPC inactive Since the first estimate of Q1 GDP has cast some doubt over the recovery’s health, the MPC is likely to have voted unanimously again at this month’s meeting to keep interest rates on hold. And while... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egyptian inflation fell back to 11.0% y/y in April but we think the central bank will wait for inflation to ease further before it cuts interest rates again. The effects of last year’s energy price... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer price inflation edged up in April and should continue to recover in coming months. This, along with signs that producer price inflation is also beginning to bottom out, should ease concerns... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Brazil inflation edged up again last month but, with the big increases in regulated prices now over, it is probably close to peaking. Meanwhile in Chile, inflation continues to grind lower and should... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) Although all eyes this morning have been on the general election result, March’s trade figures have also been released and help to explain some of the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will have to ease more before too long The Bank of Japan’s decision not to step up the pace of easing at the end of April has prompted us to pare back our expectations for yen depreciation in the near term. But we still think that... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Hungary CPI (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected 4.7% y/y rise in Turkish industrial production in March provides much-needed good news for President Erdogan ahead of next month’s election. But even so, growth in industry... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) Annual inflation in Mexico held steady at 3.1% for the second consecutive month in April and the recent stabilisation of the peso against the dollar should help to ease fears that inflation will... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers yet to spend their oil windfall... GDP growth was faster in the euro-zone than in the US in Q1, but we don’t expect this to be the start of a new trend. The single currency area has received a temporary boost from the fall in the euro... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank on course to meet 2016 inflation target Inflation is likely to have remained subdued by past standards in April, with a small pick-up in transport inflation being offset by muted food and core price pressures. The big picture is that the... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
