Africa Chart Pack Reasons for optimism are few and far between The past month has seen a raft of very bad news from key African economies. New government figures show that growth slowed in Q2 in Ghana and that South Africa’s economy actually contracted. Forward... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What’s behind the rebound in “core-core” inflation? A closely-watched measure of underlying inflation in Japan has rebounded recently, raising hopes that the Bank of Japan’s easing efforts are finally gaining traction. But most of the rebound in “core... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the VW scandal put the brakes on German growth? The news last week that Volkswagen had cheated emissions tests prompted speculation that “Made in Germany” branding had been dealt a blow that could seriously jeopardize the economy’s prospects. Given... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) August’s euro-zone monetary data point to low inflation and continued sluggish growth, adding to the evidence that more monetary stimulus from the ECB isnecessary. The run on Greek banks seems to have... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) While the Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation gauge turned negative last month, the rebound in “core-core” inflation bolsters policymakers’ upbeat outlook. But with the economy struggling to return to... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Domestic strength counters external weakness GDP growth is now on track for a solid 2.5% gain in 2015. We had previously anticipated that growth would accelerate to nearer 3.0% in 2016 but, given the weakness of global demand and the dollar’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Alarm bells sound in key economies Worries about slowing growth in China and tightening monetary policy in America have dented some of the optimism surrounding African economies. But the consensus is still far too bullish about the... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: where did it all go wrong? Brazil’s economic vulnerabilities have been brought into sharper focus in recent weeks after (yet another) slump in local financial markets. In this Focus we revisit key aspects of our research over... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Slowdown becomes a little sharper Although we wouldn’t recommend placing too much weight on the quarterly rate of GDP growth in any one quarter, the respective 0.2% and 0.4% rises in Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa fell to 4.6% y/y in August, below our expectations and those of other analysts. We still expect the SARB to hike interest rates later today, but today’s CPI figure means that... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about a weak rupiah? The Indonesian rupiah has fallen again over the past week, hitting a fresh 17-year low against the US dollar. The sharp drop in the currency, which is down by a cumulative 33% since the start of 2013... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off takes its toll on Russia and Turkey The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the hardest hit EM currencies this quarter and this has already started to feed through into the real economy. Inflation is on the rise (again)... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack FM Jaitley is playing a risky game India’s Finance Ministry continues to tread on dangerous ground by becoming increasingly vocal in its calls for further monetary easing. Most recently in an interview over the weekend, Finance... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The unchanged 1.3% annual headline inflation rate in August and the drop in core inflation to 2.1%, from 2.4%, are in line with the Bank of Canada’s assumptions, so they won’t change its neutral view... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Faster wage growth unlikely to panic MPC Although the US Fed kept interest rates on Thursday, a rate rise across the pond is not far away. And on the face of it, the pick-up in UK pay growth revealed last week suggested that the Bank of... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
