Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in South Africa rose to 4.5% in April, and we expect that it will continue to rise over the coming months. Accelerating inflation will put pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Households well-placed to endure renewed fiscal squeeze Households have rarely had it so good – no inflation, strong jobs growth, reviving earnings, a breather from austerity and falling borrowing costs. As a result, we think that real household spending... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) The UK has finally joined other advanced economies in experiencing deflation. This is a positive development and the risk that deflation becomes ingrained and so starts to have adverse effects remains... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Consumer Prices (Apr.) March’s euro-zone trade data suggest that the weakness of the euro has still had little impact on net exports, and therefore provided only modest support to the recovery. 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is globalisation dead? The past four years have seen the slowest pace of global economic integration since the Second World War. With trade talks stalled and most parts of the world already integrated into the global... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia held steady at 2.0% y/y in April as further weakness in food price pressures was offset by a pick-up in rental inflation. Looking ahead, we expect headline inflation to... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ still likely to ease before too long The Bank’s decision not to announce more stimulus at the end-April meeting will only make it more difficult to reach its 2%-inflation target, as any support from a weaker yen and rising import prices... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market ‘rout’ poses little threat to economy The recent sharp rise in government bond yields, most pronounced at the long end, has fuelled concerns about its potential adverse impact on the economy. After all, since it has not been accompanied... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Negative inflation, but for one month only Tuesday’s inflation figures look set to show that the UK slipped into deflation in April. But this is likely to have largely reflected the timing of Easter this year compared to last. Since the oil... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly When will housing rents stop falling? Because of its outsized weight in the consumer price basket, housing rent has a significant impact on inflation in Japan. Unfortunately for the Bank of Japan, it seems likely that rent will continue... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: poor corn harvest poses little inflation risk 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Following four straight increases, the small drop in consumer confidence in April is no disaster. What’s more, the Bank of Japan will have been pleased by the fact that inflation expectations are... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s Polish CPI data, which showed that consumer prices fell by 1.1% y/y compared with a drop of 1.5% y/y in March, should ease lingering concerns that deflation might become entrenched. But today... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Wholesale price inflation recorded another large drop in April, to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. Importantly, as the consumer price data released on Tuesday also showed, core... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland: An example for Greece to follow? Iceland’s healthy economic recovery after its financial collapse in 2008 highlights the attractions of currency depreciation, if necessary accompanied by capital controls. Such a path has its economic... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation problem likely to get worse We have been warning about the deep-rooted drivers of Turkish inflation for some time, and it now looks like energy prices will compound the problem by pushing the headline rate even further above the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
