Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian currencies set to rise Prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies’ are fairly good, with Sweden and Iceland likely to be the best performers. But the outlook for inflation, and therefore monetary policy, varies... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Headline reflation, underlying stagnation Signs that inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has passed its low point may give the Australian and New Zealand dollars a bit of a boost when the data for the fourth quarter are released this... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) Data to mid-January showed another larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation and, barring a sustained slide in the real, we think COPOM is likely to cut the Selic interest rate by another 75bp... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation to end 2017 lower than it started Higher fuel prices will keep South Africa’s headline inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s target range over the first quarter of this year, but slowing food inflation will bring it back within... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Producer & Import Prices (Dec.) December’s rise in Swiss producer and import price inflation does not change our view that headline consumer price inflation will be barely positive in the medium term. Accordingly, monetary policy... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack External sector won’t fuel a rapid rebound The Australian economy has started to reap some benefits from the rise in key commodity prices towards the end of last year. Most obviously, the trade balance has swung into surplus for the first... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Dec.) With the earlier sharp falls in energy prices now dropping out of the annual comparison, base effects helped to lift headline CPI inflation back above 2% in December, for the first time since mid-2014... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The latest data suggest that while the labour market has lost some of its shine, it remains resilient despite Brexit uncertainty. 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) While December’s rise in CPI inflation was greater than expected, the increase was driven by components that shouldn’t have too much of an effect on the MPC’s stance on monetary policy. 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to push CEE inflation higher over Q1 Higher oil prices led to sharp rises in inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) at the end of 2016, and this has further to run in the next few months. All in all, oil prices are likely to... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged up in y/y terms last month, but dropped in m/m terms as price discounting continued to take place following demonetisation. Nevertheless, further ahead... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) & Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m gain in December’s retail sales appears healthy enough, but looking past the headline there are a few concerns about the strength of consumer spending. That headline gain was principally... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: Political turbulence won’t knock economy off course Last week’s abortive army mutiny has focused attention on the political fragility of Côte d’Ivoire, which suffered a series of political and economic crises between 1993 and 2011. But we expect that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump takes over Two months after his surprise election night victory, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States this Friday. We said on election night that, more than anything else... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is euro-zone wage growth set to take off? Wage growth was subdued in 2016, but the recent decline in the euro-zone unemployment rate to an 87-month low, taken in isolation, points to a strong pick-up from here. On the face of it, that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
