Europe Chart Pack Is the consumer recovery running out of steam? The consumer outlook has dimmed slightly over the summer, suggesting that the economic recovery needs to become more broad-based if it is to gain momentum. The Q2 GDP breakdown showed that the... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) While today’s Tankan was not as bad as most had feared, it nonetheless corroborates other signs that Japan’s economic recovery has ground to a halt. 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil fuel price hikes to give further push to inflation 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC warns on inflation pressures Having left interest rates unchanged earlier today, the Romanian MPC once again used the accompanying press conference to warn that looser fiscal policy could lead to stronger inflation pressures. But... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s economy rebounds in Q2 The Kenyan economy received two pieces of good news today, with figures showing that inflation remained stable in September and economic growth picked up in Q2. We believe that the country, a net... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) The return of inflation to negative territory in the euro-zone, as well as the continued high rate of unemployment, will heap further pressure on the ECB to increase its stimulus. 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic interest rates on hold, but more hikes to come Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to leave its main interest rates on hold merely marks apause for breath in its tightening cycle. We think that further rate rises will be needed before the... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s crisis deepens Brazil has slipped deeper into crisis over the past month. The slump in the real economy has gathered pace, with our GDP Tracker now suggesting the output could have contracted by up to 4% y/y in Q3... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The increase in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 103.0 in September, from 101.3 suggests that lower gasoline prices trumped the fading impact from the financial market turmoil a... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s drop in inflation back below zero for the first time since January highlights that price pressures are very subdued and will add to pressure on the ECB to increase its policy support. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Impact of strong dollar to fade next year External deflationary pressure from the strong dollar and lower commodity prices will continue to keep both headline and core inflation unusually low in the shortterm . The strong dollar's downward... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Reality bites Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well this year, but policymakers cannot delay the adjustment to low oil prices much longer. Tighter fiscal policy looms. Large savings and low debt levels mean... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) Despite a slight rebound in September, small business confidence still points to tepid gains in industrial output, and the moderation in price pressures is worrying. However, the Bank of Japan will... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How far will interest rates rise? The peak rate of interest in the next tightening cycle is likely to be lower than in the past. Indeed, we estimate that the so-called “neutral rate” is now only around 3% in the US and UK and... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency falls compound inflation troubles for some EMs While inflation in the EM world is low on average, there are big divergences. In particular, many of the economies already struggling with high inflation are also those that have seen their currencies... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia raises interest rates, another hike likely by year-end The Central Bank of Colombia’s decision to hike interest rates took many analysts by surprise and demonstrated policymakers’ determination to keep inflation under control. However, with inflation... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
