Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Aug.) & Hungary CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in August was encouraging, although given the more recent declines in business confidence, it’s not clear whether this will be sustained... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy not falling off a cliff! Disappointing payrolls data from the US, weak commodity prices and another downbeat set of business surveys have fuelled fears that global growth is collapsing. However, we continue to think these... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep.) Inflation in Brazil was unchanged at 9.5% y/y in September, but the headline rate is on course to rise again in October as fuel price hikes recently announced by state-owned oil company Petrobras come... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How we compare with the IMF The IMF downgraded its forecasts for emerging market (EM) growth in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). While we agree with the IMF that EM growth should rebound next year, we think the IMF has... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bottoming out Inflation is likely to have accelerated in September, due in large part to the unwindingof the favourable base effects that helped anchor food inflation in July and August.What’s more, inflation... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How much should we worry about a slump in China? The recent turbulence in equity markets has highlighted how vulnerable global investor sentiment is to developments in China, but the risks to the world economy are smaller than many assume. Although... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery’s wheels not falling off, despite Q3 slowdown The latest business surveys made for dismal reading. Indeed, the average level of the economy-wide Markit/CIPS composite PMI over Q3 as a whole points to quarterly growth in GDP of just 0.5%... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Brexit mean for the UK economy? We doubt that the UK’s outlook hinges on the Brexit question. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Union (EU) was a big deal for the UK. We think that the UK economy will do... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy back in recession Japan’s economy probably shrank for a second straight quarter in Q3. With the economic recovery grinding to a halt, the chances of hitting the Bank’s 2%inflation by next summer are dwindling rapidly... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Making sense of the official GDP data The official GDP figures are likely to show a small slowdown in China’s growth rate in Q3 – and also to be greeted with a large amount of scepticism. We’d put more weight on the details of the GDP... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The small decline in Russian inflation last month, to 15.7% y/y, was reassuring in light of the fresh fall in the ruble. But even so, inflation remains extremely high and against this backdrop there... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Sep.) The rise in Turkish inflation to a stronger-than-expected 7.9% y/y last month provides further evidence that the latest plunge in the lira is hurting the economy. This reinforces our view that the... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) Wage growth slowed in August as the summer bonus season came to an end, underlining that the tight labour market has yet to generate noticeable cost pressures. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How did the euro-zone economy perform in Q3? The hard data available so far for Q3, as well as the more timely activity surveys, suggest that the economy performed fairly well last quarter. GDP growth probably maintained its pace from Q2 and may... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
