US Economics Weekly Rates to rise more rapidly than Fed's projections imply Our working assumption is still that the Fed will end up raising the fed funds rate three times this year, taking it to a range of between 0.75% and 1.00% by year-end. But we wouldn't be completely... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) While May's inflation figures are consistent with the Bank of Canada's forecast, the incoming data suggest that the real economy is still underperforming. If economic growth undershoots the Bank's... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun.) & Econ. Act. (Apr.) Brazil’s economic data are going from bad to worse. Figures to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is now running at close to 9% y/y. Meanwhile, the central bank’s Economic Activity... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Deflationary threat from cheaper oil far from over Only a small part of the recent plunge in energy prices has been passed on to consumers in Japan, in large part because firms rather than households are the biggest users of oil and they have not... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The 0.4% m/m increase in May's consumer price index was almost entirely due to a 10.4% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Core prices increased by a more modest 0.1% m/m last month, but the three-month... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay growth back to pre-crisis rates Alongside strong employment growth and virtually zero inflation, households are now enjoying a significant recovery in wage growth. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) While retail sales volumes only edged up in May, the underlying picture looks robust. And with pay growth picking up, inflation set to remain below 1% for another six months and job creation still... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Modest rise in MSP strengthens case for another rate cut The small rise in guaranteed prices for crops produced during the monsoon season that was announced by the government yesterday marks an important step away from populist policymaking of the past... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rising inflation, stronger output suggest rate hike in South Africa Figures released today showed that South Africa’s retail sector has remained surprisingly resilient in the face of power shortages, and rising inflation. A string of relatively strong growth figures... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) May’s consumer prices figures showed that deflation lasted for just one month, but the big picture is that inflation is set to remain extremely low during the rest of 2015. 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (May) The sharper-than-expected fall in Polish consumer prices last month reinforces our view that the central bank will be under little pressure to raise interest rates any time soon. The market, which is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf countries weathering the storm, but growth to weaken The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by low oil prices relatively well this year, with foreign exchange reserves having been drawn down to sustain spending. Large savings mean that this... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation edged up in May, but it remains firmly in negative territory and close to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. Importantly, core inflation fell further, providing... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) & PPI (May) The rebound in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to 94.6 in June, from 90.7, was impressive given the surge in gasoline prices over the past few weeks. It appears that the US... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Chancellor’s budget surplus law a step too far? Last week’s announcement by the Chancellor that he intends to pass a law to require all future governments to run a budget surplus “in normal times” engendered more accusations that he is playing... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
