Africa Economics Update South Africa: Slow, painful tightening cycle to continue The SARB’s decision to hike its key interest rate from 6.00% to 6.25% showed that the Bank is alarmed at the prospect of persistently high inflation in the context of disappointing growth. The... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity price slump produces mixed policy response The slump in commodity prices over the past year has meant central banks in net commodity exporting and importing countries have continued to follow different paths. Despite the hit to growth from... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov.) The latest rise in Brazilian inflation, to a 12-year high of 10.3% y/y in the first half of this month, was due to a combination of a rise in food inflation, which appears to be due to a weaker real... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s behind the pick-up in core inflation? While media headlines have focused on low energy prices and the risks of deflation, core inflation has actually risen in most advanced economies in recent months. However, it has done so for very... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South African inflation accelerated to 4.7% y/y in October in what we believe is the beginning of a sharp inflationary spike. While tomorrow’s rate decision will be close, we expect that the SARB will... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mounting signs that Egypt’s exchange rate policy will shift There is growing talk that Egypt is in the midst of a currency crisis and, while we think some of this may be a bit overdone, developments over the past month or so suggest that a shift towards a more... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) There is now clear evidence of an acceleration in core services price inflation, which hit a six-year high in October. That acceleration has been partly offset by the deflationary impact of the... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s -0.1% rate of CPI inflation could be the last we see of deflation for now, although we don’t think inflation will reach the 2% target until 2018. 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More positives than negatives in October data The latest round of Chinese data was met with plenty of gloomy headlines. We think these were overdone. The cloud over China’s economy may not have lifted but there were more positives than negatives... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Wholesale price inflation picked up in October and, looking ahead, we think that it will rise further over the coming months as the base effects that have helped to keep down food and fuel inflation... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Medical care inflation due for a rebound Although the Fed expects to raise interest rates only very gradually next year, we suspect that an acceleration in core inflation, thanks in part to a rebound in medical care inflation, will force the... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy could be helped by quick EU referendum We have known for some time the Government’s broad objectives for its negotiations with the EU and David Cameron’s letter last week to the European Council President Donald Tusk contained little... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) The October retail sales report was a little bit weaker than expected, but doesn't change our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a respectable 2.5%. 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Tuition fees push inflation further below zero After returning to negative territory in September, CPI inflation looks set to slip further below zero in October. While inflation looks odds on to post its lowest rate since March 1960, we do not... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowdown bolsters case for delay in sales tax hike The government has set itself a stringent target for eliminating the budget deficit and currently intends to raise the sales tax again in 2017 to help it achieve that end. The economic weakness that... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A significant shift in borrowing trends The Reserve Bank of Australia will have been pleased to see more evidence that the housing market is cooling at the same time that the outlook for business investment is improving. If recent trends... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
