Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures gave a final green light for the ECB to announce much-needed additional monetary policy stimulus at tomorrow’s Governing Council... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher debt interest payments could scupper Osborne’s plans Although the Chancellor is probably still running high from last week’s surprise windfall from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) at the Autumn Statement, he should be wary. There are various... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle now at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.75% today and, rather than just being on pause, we maintain our view that the loosening cycle is now at an end. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia CPI (Nov.) Consumer price inflation in Indonesia dropped back sharply in November as the impact of last year’s hike in subsidised fuel prices dropped out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, inflation looks... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s small rise in German HICP inflation appears to have reflected energy effects. With the core rate still very subdued, there is nothing here to put the ECB off increasing its policy support... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic rebound may already be fading The evidence suggests that the economy stumbled at the end of the third quarter, casting doubt about its capacity to survive the worsening oil price collapse. With non-exports misfiring and business... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Fears of Asia slowdown overdone For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in Asia, regional growth remains remarkably stable. That said, there are still no signs of recovery, with exports again acting as a drag on growth in the third... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Oct.) The Bank of Japan’s new favourite price gauge last month recorded the first drop since February. With sizeable amounts of slack dampening price pressures, this slowdown should continue in coming... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation now rising in more EMs than it is falling Although aggregate EM inflation edged down in October, the number of EM economies that recorded a rise in inflation last month exceeded those where it fell. We expect this trend to continue in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stagnant wage demands another headwind to QQE The fact that Japan’s main trade union federation says that it will not demand stronger pay hikes in the upcoming wage negotiations than it did last time around provides another reason to think that... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pace of dollar appreciation expected to wane next year At first glance, there would appear to be an inconsistency between our forecast that the trade-weighted dollar will increase by a modest 2% next year, while at the same time we also expect short-term... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Nearing the bottom We expect the economic downturn in Latin America to bottom out towards the turn of this year and conditions to improve in 2016. However, the recovery will be slow-going and uneven. For a start, the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank still putting faith in export-led recovery We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its key interest rate 0.50% next week and remain neutral on the direction of its next potential move. While highlighting the further slide in oil prices as a... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Rate debate heats up in Indonesia The war of words between Bank Indonesia (BI) and the government is heating up after the country’s vice president, Jusuf Kalla, earlier this week renewed its call for the central bank to cut interest... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
