Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rebound won’t be sustained Australia and New Zealand both staged impressive rebounds in the third quarter, with GDP rising by 0.9% q/q in each economy on the back of a large boost from net exports. However, neither economy will... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Dec.) The fall in small business confidence in December partly reflects seasonal patterns. Nonetheless, it confirms earlier signs from the manufacturing PMI that economic momentum has slowed somewhat... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to rebound Inflation is currently being held down by the impact of falling commodity prices and the stronger dollar but, as those deflationary forces fade next year, we expect rising domestic price pressures to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest oil price fall will keep inflation lower for longer Inflation still looks likely to rise in most EMs next year, despite the recent slump in oil prices. However, the rebound will now be more gradual, which will allow central banks in most economies to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households unprepared for what comes next We fear that households are utterly unprepared for the normalisation of market interest rates that began with the US Fed’s historic lift-off last week. Canada’s economy has long been overly reliant on... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What to expect in 2016 If 2015 was the year when interest rates didn’t rise as rapidly as most originally expected, then 2016 is likely to be the opposite, with a bigger than expected rebound in inflation forcing the Fed to... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Wholesale Sales (Oct.) The increase in annual headline inflation to 1.4% in November, from 1.0%, was largely as expected given the diminishing drag from lower energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation remained close to the 2... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth supports to fade in 2016 The stronger-than-expected performance of the euro-zone economy in 2015 and the additional policy support recently provided by the ECB might appear to provide the conditions for a further improvement... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2016: Surviving rate rises and an EU referendum After a slight wobble in the autumn, the UK economy seems to be ending 2015 on a more positive note. Growth this year is on course to have been about 2.4%. While weaker than 2014’s 2.9% growth rate... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation, to 10.7% y/y, in the first half of December was driven by an increase in food inflation that should ease by mid-2016. Nonetheless, the risk of... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of our key calls for 2016 and beyond Advanced economies are likely to continue their steady recovery during the coming year or two, albeit with the euro-zone and Japan still lagging well behind the US and UK. Tighter labour market... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons for 2016 from 2015 Our decent forecasting performance in 2015 means we are not too worried by some of our forecasts for 2016 being very different to the consensus. Our big success this year was accurately forecasting... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Stronger end to the year One implication of the US Fed’s decision to raise interest rates is that its concerns about China have receded. Certainly, the financial market turmoil that spilled over from China to the rest of the... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady as Fed starts to tighten Emerging market (EM) growth remained fairly stable in October, as it has for much of the year. Looking ahead, we expect EM growth to pick up a touch in 2016, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates early next year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%, but dropped the clearest signal yet that an interest rate cut is not far away. We are maintaining our view that the central bank... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small fall in the headline German Ifo index left it still at a high level. But the sharper decline in the current conditions component supported evidence from recent hard data that growth... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
