US Economics Weekly Dithering Fed still waiting for perfect conditions We are now assuming that, even if the rally in global stock markets continues, some Fed officials will still want to hold off on raising interest rates until October or even December. A September rate... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Aug.) August’s inflation data confirmed that price pressures in Germany are very subdued,underlining the need for continued and perhaps increased ECB policy support. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s problems lie closer to home than China We are fairly relaxed about the impact of a slowdown in China on the euro-zone. Most importantly, this is because the concerns about the Chinese economy look overblown. And in any case, the direct... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More “good” deflation to boost consumer recovery Turbulence in financial markets once again overshadowed some positive economic developments on the domestic front last week. Indeed, Q2’s second estimate of GDP showed that the recovery in household... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia to recover from disappointing second quarter The first contraction in exports since the global financial crisis dragged down growth in Emerging Asia to its lowest in over three years last quarter. However, we expect a turn around over the coming... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales, Household Spending Consumer Prices (Jul.) Underlying price pressures are not quite as weak as the stagnation in the ”core” CPI suggests. But following a renewed widening in spare capacity last quarter, the chances of hitting the Bank of Japan... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Foreigners head for the exits The financial turmoil of the past month in Asia has seen foreign investors scramble for the exit. Net foreign outflows from the region’s equity markets have reached nearly US$10bn so far in August... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Back in the spotlight Latin America has found itself back under the spotlight in recent weeks, this time as concerns over the economic outlook for China – the largest trading partner for most countries in the region – have... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Aug.) Small business confidence moderated in August, but still points to modest gains in industrial output. 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August more than offset last month’s sharp fall and is consistent with consumption growth remaining healthy in the third quarter... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US economy not at risk from modest China slowdown Central European bonds and currencies have been remarkably resilient during the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. In contrast, Turkish markets have been hit by fresh concerns about the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Mexican inflation in the first half of the month suggests that the sharp fall in the peso is still having little impact on domestic price pressures. While the recent sell-off in the... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in oil prices mean for Russia? The latest plunge in global oil prices and the associated depreciation of the ruble have added to what was already a bleak picture for the Russian economy and reinforce our view that this year’s... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil not the only worry Nigeria’s economy has struggled this year, with the most obvious cause being the recent collapse of global oil prices. But this isn’t the only obstacle to faster growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek election adds to bailout implementation risks Prime Minister Tsipras’ decision to call an election threw the Greek situation back into disarray only hours after he secured Greece’s first bailout payment last week. Tsipras should win, perhaps with... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
